NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
DEN
Denver Broncos
@
Home
SF
San Francisco 49ers
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 7:25am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 4:25pm ET
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Spread
SF -2.5
Total
47.5
DEN ML
$2.25
SF ML
$1.74
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
DENRating +1.7
Off EPA/play
+0.083
Def EPA/play
+0.052
Exp points
24.5
Offence by zone
+.13
-.14
-.07
-.08
-.11
+.12
-.08
+.00
-.04
+.13
-.06
-.06
+.06
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.33
-.30
-.07
-.17
-.03
-.05
+.04
+.00
+.06
+.26
+.02
+.09
-.08
SFRating +4.7
Off EPA/play
+0.193
Def EPA/play
+0.107
Exp points
30.0
Offence by zone
+.06
+.51
+.25
+.29
+.18
-.03
+.20
+.02
-.03
+.11
-.06
-.05
+.02
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.06
+.18
-.10
+.21
-.24
+.04
-.03
-.03
+.05
+.14
+.03
-.07
-.02
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
SF offence vs DEN
inside runs
+0.37 EPA/play
DEN offence vs SF
inside runs
+0.27 EPA/play
DEN offence vs SF
short-right passing
+0.16 EPA/play
Market
Spread (SF)
Open -3 → Now -2.5·Move +0.5
AU best
SF -2.5 @ $1.88 Unibet
AU best (other side)
DEN +3 @ $1.80 PlayUp
Global best
SF -2 @ $1.83 BetUS
Total
Open 46.5 → Now 48.0·Move +1.5Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 47.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 48.5 @ $1.85 TAB
Global best over
Over 47.5 @ $1.93 Courtside
AU best DEN ML
$2.25 PointsBet (AU)
AU best SF ML
$1.74 Unibet
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Lean: Over 47.5
Model SF +5.5 · total 54.5Spread · Analysis
SF -2.5
$1.88 Unibet
Edge +3.0EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 47.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +7.0LEAN
The model's primary signal is the total, leaning Over 47.5 at PointsBet (AU), priced 1.90, with a 7.0-point edge against that line - enough to clear the Lean floor but short of the 10-point Play threshold used in these early weeks, with the season record so far sitting at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals. That rating blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team, scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample so far just 5,586 plays and still mostly outweighed by that blend; it also carries a hand adjustment of 0.6 points for Brock Purdy. The 49ers rate well ahead on both sides of the ball, 4.7 to 1.7.
San Francisco's inside-run game is the key matchup, rated at +0.37 EPA/play against Denver's run defence, Denver's weakest zone. The total's market move, from 46.5 to 48.0, has tracked toward the model's own number of 54.5.
Why · SF inside runs (+0.37 EPA/play vs DEN, DEN's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · SF Brock Purdy +0.6 pts
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
DEN · 638 dropbacks
Bo Nix
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (466 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.38 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced27%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SF defence: pressure 23% · blitz —
SF · 298 dropbacks
Brock Purdy
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (214 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.45 (84 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DEN defence: pressure 35% · blitz 38%
DEN offence vs SF coverage
| Shell | SF usage | DEN EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (201 snaps) | +0.09 (205 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 21% (130 snaps) | +0.26 (120 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 17% (110 snaps) | +0.06 (182 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 14% (88 snaps) | +0.11 (70 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 9% (55 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
SF man coverage 25% · DEN vs man +0.25, vs zone +0.07
SF offence vs DEN coverage
| Shell | DEN usage | SF EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (215 snaps) | +0.05 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (162 snaps) | +0.24 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (112 snaps) | +0.13 (152 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (61 snaps) | +0.28 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (50 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
DEN man coverage 45% · SF vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.17
DEN tendencies
Play action rate23% · — vs -0.13 EPA (23 snaps)
RPO rate4% (7 snaps)
Screen rate8% (8 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 14%, 22 8%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 38% / 45%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.07 (29 snaps) · neutral +0.10 (33 snaps)
SF tendencies
Play action rate28% · — vs +0.76 EPA (25 snaps)
RPO rate1% (1 snaps)
Screen rate10% (9 snaps)
Personnel11 43%, 21 37%, 12 11%, 22 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man23% / — / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.08 (34 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (44 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:44 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2