NFL 2026 · Week 5
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 7:25am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 4:25pm ET
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
DETRating +1.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
ARIRating -6.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
DET offence vs ARI
deep-left passing
+0.73 EPA/play
DET offence vs ARI
short-middle passing
+0.37 EPA/play
ARI offence vs DET
deep-right passing
+0.56 EPA/play
Market
Spread (ARI)
Open +4.5 → Now +5.5·Move +1.0Moved toward model
AU bestARI +6 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)DET -4.5 @ $1.87 SportsBet
Global bestARI +6 @ $1.90 TAB
Total
Open 54.5 → Now 54.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 54.0 @ $1.88 TABtouch
AU best underUnder 55.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best overOver 54.0 @ $1.89 betPARX
AU best DET ML
$1.41 Unibet
AU best ARI ML
$3.10 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model ARI -6.0 · total 54.5Spread · Analysis
DET -4.5
$1.87 SportsBet
Edge +1.5PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 54
$1.88 TABtouch
Edge +0.5PASS
Detroit -4.5 at SportsBet, priced at 1.87, is a PASS. The model projects a 6.0-point Detroit win, leaving a 1.5-point edge at that offer. Detroit's deep-left passing matchup shows +0.73 EPA per play against Arizona, but the spread already accounts for much of the projected team difference. Over 54 at TABtouch, priced at 1.88, has only a 0.5-point edge and is also a PASS.
Brian Branch was limited with an Achilles injury, while Tyleik Williams and Rock Ya-Sin missed Wednesday practice for Detroit. Arizona's Jeremiyah Love was limited with an ankle injury and Josh Sweat was absent with rest/groin listed. Practice participation is not a final game-status designation, and no new numerical injury adjustment is applied. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · DET deep-left passing (+0.73 EPA/play vs ARI)
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
DET · 614 dropbacks
Jared Goff
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (429 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.47 (185 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ARI defence: pressure 26% · blitz —
ARI · 530 dropbacks
Jacoby Brissett
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.24 (355 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (175 snaps)
Pressure rate faced33%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DET defence: pressure 30% · blitz 32%
DET offence vs ARI coverage
| Shell | ARI usage | DET EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | -0.06 (190 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (129 snaps) | +0.23 (147 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (107 snaps) | +0.15 (138 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (83 snaps) | +0.44 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 9% (58 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
| 2-Man | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
ARI man coverage 28% · DET vs man +0.26, vs zone +0.13
ARI offence vs DET coverage
| Shell | DET usage | ARI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (178 snaps) | +0.09 (146 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 28% (178 snaps) | +0.05 (219 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 17% (110 snaps) | +0.00 (171 snaps) | 0.00 |
| 2-Man | 11% (69 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (48 snaps) | -0.12 (81 snaps) | +0.07 |
DET man coverage 41% · ARI vs man +0.08, vs zone +0.00
DET tendencies
Play action rate31% · +0.26 vs +0.23 EPA (53 snaps)
RPO rate2% (6 snaps)
Screen rate4% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 62%, 12 25%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 32% / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.08 (26 snaps) · neutral +0.09 (54 snaps)
ARI tendencies
Play action rate15% · — vs -0.03 EPA (25 snaps)
RPO rate1% (3 snaps)
Screen rate6% (9 snaps)
Personnel11 50%, 12 36%, 13 11%
Def pressure / blitz / man26% / — / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.15 (46 snaps) · neutral -0.17 (58 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:05 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2