NFL 2026 · Week 4
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 11:20am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 8:20pm ET
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
DETRating +2.5
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
CARRating +0.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
CAR offence vs DET
deep-right passing
+0.76 EPA/play
DET offence vs CAR
deep-left passing
+0.45 EPA/play
CAR offence vs DET
short-right passing
+0.16 EPA/play
Market
Spread (CAR)
Open +3.5 → Now +3.5·Move 0.0
AU bestCAR +5.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)DET -3 @ $1.77 PlayUp
Global bestCAR +5.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Total
Open 50.5 → Now 51.0·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 50.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 51.5 @ $1.85 TAB
Global best overOver 50.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best DET ML
$1.53 Bet Right
AU best CAR ML
$2.67 SportsBet
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: CAR +5.5
Model CAR +0.4 · total 53.3Spread · Analysis
CAR +5.5
$1.85 Dabble AU
Edge +5.9EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 50.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.8PASS
The model margin sits at just 0.4 points, nowhere near the market's 3.5-point lean toward the Lions, and against the Dabble AU best line of CAR +5.5 that gap works out to a 5.9-point edge for Carolina. That's short of the Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5, so this is edge noted, nothing more. Carolina's rating is still blended with last season's numbers, the market's post-offseason view of the roster and roster continuity, with the 2026 sample at 5,586 plays still mostly outweighed by that prior and the market anchor. The model is 1-0 against the spread so far this season. Carolina's deep-right passing produced +0.76 EPA/play against Detroit's defence, the Lions' weakest zone, the main reason the model sees something here even without a side it's prepared to support.
On the total, the model's 53.3 projection clears the market number but only by 2.8 points against the PointsBet (AU) line of 50.5, well under the threshold, so the model does not favour either side here.
Why · CAR deep-right passing (+0.76 EPA/play vs DET, DET's weakest zone)
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
DET · 614 dropbacks
Jared Goff
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (429 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.47 (185 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CAR defence: pressure 22% · blitz 38%
CAR · 506 dropbacks
Bryce Young
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.13 (353 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.44 (153 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DET defence: pressure 30% · blitz 37%
DET offence vs CAR coverage
| Shell | CAR usage | DET EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 33% (187 snaps) | -0.06 (190 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 22% (123 snaps) | +0.23 (147 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 19% (104 snaps) | +0.15 (138 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 14% (78 snaps) | +0.44 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
CAR man coverage 22% · DET vs man +0.26, vs zone +0.13
CAR offence vs DET coverage
| Shell | DET usage | CAR EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (178 snaps) | +0.01 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 28% (178 snaps) | -0.07 (163 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 17% (110 snaps) | +0.07 (125 snaps) | 0.00 |
| 2-Man | 11% (69 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (48 snaps) | +0.16 (77 snaps) | +0.07 |
DET man coverage 41% · CAR vs man -0.12, vs zone +0.00
DET tendencies
Play action rate35% · +0.20 vs +0.27 EPA (42 snaps)
RPO rate2% (4 snaps)
Screen rate4% (5 snaps)
Personnel11 62%, 12 25%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 37% / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedneutral +0.16 (37 snaps)
CAR tendencies
Play action rate23% · — vs +0.16 EPA (30 snaps)
RPO rate8% (16 snaps)
Screen rate4% (5 snaps)
Personnel11 67%, 12 21%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man22% / 38% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.17 (40 snaps) · neutral -0.24 (41 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:44 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2