NFL 2026 · Week 7
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 7:25am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 4:25pm ET
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am
Power Comparison
GBRating +3.5
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
DETRating +2.1
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
GB offence vs DET
deep-middle passing
+0.78 EPA/play
DET offence vs GB
short-right passing
+0.31 EPA/play
DET offence vs GB
deep-left passing
+0.57 EPA/play
Market
Spread (DET)
Open -3 → Now -3·Move 0.0
AU bestDET -3 @ $1.87 Unibet
AU best (other side)GB +3.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Global bestDET -3 @ $1.93 Courtside
Total
Open 53.5 → Now 53.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 52.5 @ $1.82 SportsBet
AU best underUnder 53.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
Global best overOver 52.5 @ $1.83 FanDuel
AU best DET ML
$1.62 Unibet
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots
The Call
Play: Over 52.5
Model DET +0.2 · total 60.2Spread · Analysis
GB +3.5
$1.92 Dabble AU
Edge +3.3LEAN
Total · Model recommendation
Over 52.5
$1.82 SportsBet
Edge +7.7PLAY
Over 52.5 at SportsBet, priced at 1.82, qualifies as PLAY with a 7.7-point model edge. Detroit's strong offensive profile meets Green Bay's stronger defence, while the Lions' weaker defensive profile gives the Packers a route to contribute heavily. Green Bay's deep-middle passing matchup stands out, although it occupies a small share of the offence. Detroit has a more frequently used short-right route alongside its own downfield opportunity.
Jordan Love's back injury is an important qualification. He was estimated as limited in Wednesday's walkthrough and remains the expected starter; the forecast has no new adjustment for that restriction. Aaron Banks, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden were also limited. Detroit's report was an estimate too, with Brian Branch full and Rock Ya-Sin limited. Those reports are not final game designations. Green Bay +3.5 at Dabble AU is a separate LEAN. The total is a model recommendation, with meaningful uncertainty around Love's condition and the aggressive scoring projection.
Why · DET short-right passing (+0.31 EPA/play vs GB)
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
GB · 461 dropbacks
Jordan Love
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.54 (332 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.54 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DET defence: pressure 30% · blitz 30%
DET · 614 dropbacks
Jared Goff
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (429 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.47 (185 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
GB defence: pressure 31% · blitz 34%
GB offence vs DET coverage
| Shell | DET usage | GB EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (178 snaps) | +0.50 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 28% (178 snaps) | +0.25 (141 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 17% (110 snaps) | +0.06 (130 snaps) | 0.00 |
| 2-Man | 11% (69 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (48 snaps) | +0.36 (55 snaps) | +0.07 |
DET man coverage 41% · GB vs man +0.47, vs zone +0.16
DET offence vs GB coverage
| Shell | GB usage | DET EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 34% (204 snaps) | -0.06 (190 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 28% (171 snaps) | +0.23 (147 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (101 snaps) | +0.15 (138 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 10% (59 snaps) | +0.44 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
GB man coverage 20% · DET vs man +0.26, vs zone +0.13
GB tendencies
Play action rate20% · +0.36 vs +0.06 EPA (47 snaps)
RPO rate6% (21 snaps)
Screen rate10% (24 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 34% / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.01 (80 snaps) · neutral -0.08 (62 snaps)
DET tendencies
Play action rate32% · +0.28 vs +0.28 EPA (66 snaps)
RPO rate2% (7 snaps)
Screen rate6% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 62%, 12 25%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 30% / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.03 (30 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (67 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2