Power Comparison
Matchup Edges
Market
The Call
Green Bay +4.5 at 1.85 with Dabble AU is a LEAN, carrying a 4.3-point gap against the selected away offer. The total has moved enough to change the earlier recommendation: Over 54.5 at 1.85 with SportsBet now has a 5.7-point edge and is a LEAN and does not reach the Over PLAY threshold. The model total remains 60.2; the downgrade comes from the new market line, not a revised statistical projection. Neither current market is a formal recommendation.
Jordan Love finished with full practices and no game designation, as did Detroit's Brian Branch, Cade Mays and Rock Ya-Sin. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are also without final designations. Green Bay is missing Zaire Franklin, however, and Aaron Banks remains questionable, affecting underneath defence and interior protection respectively. The Packers' deep-middle passing matchup remains useful context, but those availability details are not converted into additional points. Final inactives are pending, with the opening Over recommendation retained separately for grading.
Availability check
Checked 25 Oct 2026, 04:01 pm Sydney time · Final inactives pending
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love · expected starter
Jordan Love remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Jordan Love has no game designation after full Thursday and Friday practices. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden also have no designation. Zaire Franklin is out; Aaron Banks, Bo Melton and Benjamin St-Juste are questionable. Jordon Riley is questionable and would need roster activation. Love's improvement and the available receivers support the passing outlook, while Banks and Franklin matter to protection and underneath defense.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-23
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff · expected starter
Jared Goff remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Brian Branch, Cade Mays and Rock Ya-Sin all finished as full participants without a game designation. Goff remains the expected starter. That improves the current outlook for Detroit's secondary and interior protection compared with the earlier practice-only snapshot, without changing the model's historical inputs.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-23
Injury implications are qualitative. No additional numerical injury adjustments are applied.
Situational
| Shell | DET usage | GB EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (178 snaps) | +0.50 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 28% (178 snaps) | +0.25 (141 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 17% (110 snaps) | +0.06 (130 snaps) | 0.00 |
| 2-Man | 11% (69 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (48 snaps) | +0.36 (55 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Shell | GB usage | DET EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 34% (204 snaps) | -0.06 (190 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 28% (171 snaps) | +0.23 (147 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (101 snaps) | +0.15 (138 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 10% (59 snaps) | +0.44 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
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