The model gives Minnesota a 4.2-point margin at home, against a best AU line of MIN -0.5 at SportsBet (1.87), a 3.7-point edge on the spread that lands as a LEAN, short of the model's threshold. Green Bay's deep-right passing grades well against Minnesota's coverage (an EPA edge of +0.55), but Minnesota's own deep-left shots are the sharper matchup (an EPA edge of +0.49), and that's the driver behind the lean toward the home side. On the total, the model's 45.1 sits just 0.9 points under SportsBet's 46.5, a PASS. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 1.5 points for Kyler Murray as the established starter over the second-year option.

There's no 2026 form yet, so both ratings blend last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each roster (the market anchor), scaled by roster continuity. This is analysis, not a tip, and the gap sits short of the 10-point bar the model wants before week 6. Worth stating plainly: this approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over the same weeks last season, and 53% on totals is break-even at -110.