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NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
GB
Green Bay Packers
@
Home
NYJ
New York Jets
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Spread
NYJ +3.5
Total
44.5
GB ML
$1.56
NYJ ML
$2.63
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm

Power Comparison

GBRating +0.8
Off EPA/play
+0.106
Def EPA/play
+0.091
Exp points
26.0
Offence by zone
+.16
+.01
+.36
+.09
-.25
+.13
-.11
-.19
+.02
-.12
+.05
-.15
+.02
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.27
-.07
-.12
-.06
+.14
+.12
-.02
+.13
-.04
-.07
-.03
-.05
-.16
NYJRating -6.3
Off EPA/play
+0.013
Def EPA/play
+0.127
Exp points
21.8
Offence by zone
-.11
-.08
+.01
-.12
-.11
-.06
-.03
-.09
-.02
+.08
-.08
+.01
-.03
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.04
-.06
+.02
+.16
-.03
+.32
-.05
+.03
+.02
-.23
+.03
-.01
-.10
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

GB offence vs NYJ
short-right passing
+0.44 EPA/play
GB offence vs NYJ
deep-right passing
+0.39 EPA/play
GB offence vs NYJ
short-left passing
+0.24 EPA/play

Market

Spread (NYJ)
Open +3.5 → Now +3.5·Move 0.0
AU best
NYJ +4 @ $1.83 PlayUp
AU best (other side)
GB -3.5 @ $1.96 SportsBet
Global best
NYJ +4 @ $1.83 PlayUp
Total
Open 44.5 → Now 44.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 44.0 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 44.5 @ $1.96 SportsBet
Global best over
Over 31.5 @ $1.11 Courtside
AU best GB ML
$1.56 Bet Right
AU best NYJ ML
$2.63 Unibet
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots

The Call

Edge noted / no bet: Over 44
Model NYJ -4.2 · total 47.8
Spread · Analysis
GB -3.5
$1.96 SportsBet
Edge +0.2PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 44
$1.87 PlayUp
Edge +3.8EDGE NOTED / NO BET

The primary market here is the total, where the model's 47.8 projection sits clear of the market's 44 at PlayUp (1.87), a 3.8-point edge that's Noted, short of the model's Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5. Green Bay -3.5 at SportsBet (1.96) is priced almost exactly where the model has it, an edge of just 0.2 points, so that's a Pass. Green Bay's short-right passing game projects at +0.44 EPA/play against the Jets' weakest zone there, supporting the total more than the spread. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 0.8 points for Geno Smith, and with just 1,830 plays of 2026 sample, this rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of both teams and scaled by roster continuity.

Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified. On last season's charting, Geno Smith averaged -0.977 EPA per dropback under pressure. Neither market clears the early-season bar here.

Why · GB short-right passing (+0.44 EPA/play vs NYJ, NYJ's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · NYJ Geno Smith +0.8 pts

Situational

2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
GB · 461 dropbacks
Jordan Love
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.54 (332 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.54 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NYJ defence: pressure 24% · blitz 28%
NYJ · 503 dropbacks
Geno Smith
2025 sample with LV
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (339 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.98 (164 snaps)
Pressure rate faced33%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate5%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
GB defence: pressure 31% · blitz 21%
GB offence vs NYJ coverage
ShellNYJ usageGB EPA/dbLeague
Cover 128% (160 snaps)+0.50 (132 snaps)+0.06
Cover 226% (151 snaps)+0.06 (130 snaps)0.00
Cover 322% (129 snaps)+0.25 (141 snaps)+0.06
2-Man7% (42 snaps)—+0.07
Cover 47% (41 snaps)+0.36 (55 snaps)+0.07
NYJ man coverage 40% · GB vs man +0.47, vs zone +0.16
NYJ offence vs GB coverage
ShellGB usageNYJ EPA/dbLeague
Cover 334% (204 snaps)+0.03 (204 snaps)+0.06
Cover 228% (171 snaps)-0.31 (153 snaps)0.00
Cover 117% (101 snaps)-0.38 (112 snaps)+0.06
Cover 410% (59 snaps)-0.23 (42 snaps)+0.07
GB man coverage 20% · NYJ vs man -0.18, vs zone -0.13
GB tendencies
Play action rate26% · +0.40 vs +0.20 EPA (141 snaps)
RPO rate10% (94 snaps)
Screen rate7% (38 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 21% / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.07 (222 snaps) · neutral -0.07 (177 snaps) · heavy +0.17 (45 snaps)
NYJ tendencies
Play action rate18% · -0.01 vs -0.17 EPA (109 snaps)
RPO rate9% (93 snaps)
Screen rate7% (41 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 20%, 21 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man24% / 28% / 40%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.03 (184 snaps) · neutral -0.03 (209 snaps) · heavy -0.01 (81 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:47 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2