The primary market here is the total, where the model's 47.8 projection sits clear of the market's 44 at PlayUp (1.87), a 3.8-point edge that's Noted, short of the model's Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5. Green Bay -3.5 at SportsBet (1.96) is priced almost exactly where the model has it, an edge of just 0.2 points, so that's a Pass. Green Bay's short-right passing game projects at +0.44 EPA/play against the Jets' weakest zone there, supporting the total more than the spread. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 0.8 points for Geno Smith, and with just 1,830 plays of 2026 sample, this rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of both teams and scaled by roster continuity.

The model is 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals this season; last year over these same weeks it went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals, with 53% on totals being break-even at -110. On last season's charting, Geno Smith averaged -0.977 EPA per dropback under pressure. Neither market clears the early-season bar here.