NFL 2026 · Week 4
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Home
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
GBRating -3.5
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
TBRating -0.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
GB offence vs TB
short-left passing
+0.29 EPA/play
GB offence vs TB
deep-left passing
+0.25 EPA/play
TB offence vs GB
runs off left end
+0.19 EPA/play
Market
Spread (TB)
Open +3.5 → Now +3.5·Move 0.0
AU bestTB +4 @ $1.91 Unibet
AU best (other side)GB -3.5 @ $1.95 TAB
Global bestTB +4 @ $1.91 BetRivers
Total
Open 39.5 → Now 38.5·Move -1.0
AU best overOver 38.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 39.0 @ $1.89 TABtouch
Global best overOver 38.5 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
AU best GB ML
$1.56 Bet Right
AU best TB ML
$2.60 Unibet
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Play: TB +4
Model TB +7.0 · total 43.0Spread · Model recommendation
TB +4
$1.91 Unibet
Edge +11.0PLAY
Total · Analysis
Over 38.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +4.5EDGE NOTED / NO BET
The model backs Buccaneers +4 at Unibet (1.91), a full PLAY with an 11.0-point edge over the best line, margin projected at 7.0 to Tampa Bay against a market sitting at 3.5. The rating still blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team, scaled by roster continuity, with only 5,586 plays of 2026 football banked so far (weeks 1 to 3) still mostly outweighed by last season and the market. Green Bay's defensive power rating (-3.5) trails Tampa Bay's (-0.2), and the model's own why note points to Tampa Bay's run game off left end (+0.19 EPA/play vs Green Bay) as a lever the line hasn't fully respected; the market hasn't moved toward the model since open. Early season record sits at 1-0 against the spread.
The total gets a brief mention: Over 38.5 at PointsBet (AU) carries a 4.5-point edge, noted but short of the Lean floor, so no pick there. On 2025 charting, Green Bay's Jordan Love posted 0.254 EPA per play against Tampa Bay's Cover 3 shell, well above the league average of 0.056.
Why · TB runs off left end (+0.19 EPA/play vs GB)
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
GB · 461 dropbacks
Jordan Love
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.54 (332 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.54 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
TB defence: pressure 35% · blitz 46%
TB · 584 dropbacks
Baker Mayfield
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.18 (431 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (153 snaps)
Pressure rate faced26%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
GB defence: pressure 31% · blitz —
GB offence vs TB coverage
| Shell | TB usage | GB EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (203 snaps) | +0.25 (141 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (137 snaps) | +0.06 (130 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (113 snaps) | +0.50 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (71 snaps) | +0.36 (55 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
TB man coverage 29% · GB vs man +0.47, vs zone +0.16
TB offence vs GB coverage
| Shell | GB usage | TB EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 34% (204 snaps) | +0.05 (168 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 28% (171 snaps) | +0.20 (153 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (101 snaps) | +0.01 (162 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 10% (59 snaps) | -0.29 (65 snaps) | +0.07 |
GB man coverage 20% · TB vs man -0.01, vs zone +0.06
GB tendencies
Play action rate14% · — vs -0.02 EPA (19 snaps)
RPO rate4% (7 snaps)
Screen rate7% (9 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / — / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.02 (52 snaps) · neutral -0.18 (35 snaps)
TB tendencies
Play action rate22% · — vs -0.22 EPA (27 snaps)
RPO rate3% (5 snaps)
Screen rate7% (8 snaps)
Personnel11 70%, 12 21%, 21 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 46% / 29%
Box vs run, EPA allowedneutral -0.16 (29 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:43 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2