NFL 2026 · Week 3
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IND
Indianapolis Colts
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
HOURating +1.1
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
INDRating -2.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
IND offence vs HOU
deep-middle passing
+0.27 EPA/play
HOU offence vs IND
runs off left tackle
+0.22 EPA/play
HOU offence vs IND
short-right passing
+0.09 EPA/play
Market
Spread (IND)
Open +2.5 → Now +2.5·Move 0.0
AU bestIND +3 @ $1.85 TAB
AU best (other side)HOU -2.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global bestIND +3 @ $1.85 TAB
Total
Open 43.5 → Now 42.5·Move -1.0Moved toward model
AU best overOver 42.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
AU best underUnder 43.0 @ $1.89 TABtouch
Global best overOver 24.5 @ $1.03 Courtside
AU best HOU ML
$1.70 Bet Right
AU best IND ML
$2.25 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model IND -1.1 · total 41.5Spread · Analysis
IND +3
$1.85 TAB
Edge +1.9PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 43
$1.89 TABtouch
Edge +1.0PASS
The model's margin has the Colts losing by 1.1 at home, well inside the market's 2.5-point line, and the best available spread of IND +3 at TAB (1.85) shows an edge of just 1.9 points, short of what the model needs to see before it moves on anything at this early stage. That's a pass, not a lean. The total is similarly quiet: Under 43 at TABtouch (1.89) shows just a one-point edge against the market total of 42.5, another pass. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 0.6 points for Daniel Jones, and this early in the season the number is still last season's form blended with the market's post-offseason view of both teams and scaled by roster continuity, with only 3666 plays of 2026 football in the mix so far. The model's spread record this season sits at 1-0.
Houston's ground game stands out: HOU runs off left tackle against Indianapolis at +0.22 EPA/play, the largest gap in the matchup file, while Indianapolis' deep-middle passing shows +0.27 EPA/play the other way. Neither figure moves either market number enough to matter here.
Why · HOU runs off left tackle (+0.22 EPA/play vs IND)
Hand adjustments · IND Daniel Jones +0.6 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
HOU · 446 dropbacks
C.J. Stroud
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.30 (317 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.43 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced29%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
IND defence: pressure 29% · blitz 28%
IND · 409 dropbacks
Daniel Jones
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.29 (295 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (114 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
HOU defence: pressure 30% · blitz 23%
HOU offence vs IND coverage
| Shell | IND usage | HOU EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (182 snaps) | +0.17 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (167 snaps) | -0.02 (162 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (166 snaps) | +0.36 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (52 snaps) | +0.16 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (47 snaps) | -0.52 (42 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
IND man coverage 37% · HOU vs man -0.02, vs zone +0.10
IND offence vs HOU coverage
| Shell | HOU usage | IND EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 29% (178 snaps) | +0.13 (135 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 23% (143 snaps) | +0.13 (138 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (138 snaps) | +0.03 (158 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (76 snaps) | +0.12 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (48 snaps) | +0.11 (40 snaps) | -0.03 |
HOU man coverage 32% · IND vs man +0.04, vs zone +0.09
HOU tendencies
Play action rate23% · +0.19 vs +0.03 EPA (148 snaps)
RPO rate2% (19 snaps)
Screen rate5% (31 snaps)
Personnel11 72%, 12 12%, 21 7%, 10 4%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 23% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.14 (193 snaps) · neutral -0.06 (136 snaps) · heavy -0.42 (30 snaps)
IND tendencies
Play action rate28% · +0.13 vs +0.06 EPA (168 snaps)
RPO rate9% (90 snaps)
Screen rate5% (32 snaps)
Personnel11 64%, 12 26%, 13 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man29% / 28% / 37%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (230 snaps) · neutral -0.06 (135 snaps) · heavy -0.16 (40 snaps)
Model Form
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 3,666 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (weeks 1 to 2), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2