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NFL 2026 · Week 6
Away
HOU
Houston Texans
@
Designated home
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kick-off
Mon 19 Oct, 12:30am AEDT
Sun 18 Oct, 9:30am ET
Venue
Wembley Stadium
Neutral venue
Spread
JAX -2.5
Total
42.5
HOU ML
$2.25
JAX ML
$1.74
AU consensus as of 15/10/2026, 11:39:22 am

Power Comparison

HOURating +2.9
Off EPA/play
+0.098
Def EPA/play
+0.045
Exp points
20.6
Offence by zone
-.06
+.16
-.21
+.05
-.04
+.13
-.17
-.23
+.11
+.19
+.02
-.18
-.14
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.09
+.43
+.38
-.10
-.02
-.07
-.30
+.16
-.50
+.01
+.12
+.09
-.08
JAXRating +6.1
Off EPA/play
+0.135
Def EPA/play
+0.023
Exp points
22.5
Offence by zone
+.20
+.25
+.28
-.00
+.19
+.26
-.21
+.21
-.08
+.10
+.02
-.06
-.03
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.22
+.36
+.14
+.08
-.20
-.10
-.08
-.11
-.10
+.03
-.23
-.18
-.05
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

JAX offence vs HOU
deep-right passing
+0.66 EPA/play
JAX offence vs HOU
deep-middle passing
+0.68 EPA/play
HOU offence vs JAX
deep-middle passing
+0.51 EPA/play

Market

Spread (JAX)
Open -2.5 → Now -2.5·Move 0.0
AU best
JAX -2.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
HOU +2.5 @ $1.95 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
JAX -2 @ $1.83 BetUS
Total
Open 42.5 → Now 42.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
AU best under
Under 42.5 @ $1.91 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 42.5 @ $2.00 theScore Bet
AU best HOU ML
$2.25 Unibet
AU best JAX ML
$1.74 SportsBet
10 AU books · 33 total · 7 snapshots

The Call

No edge
Model JAX +1.9 · total 43.1
Spread · Analysis
HOU +2.5
$1.95 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +0.6PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 42.5
$1.90 SportsBet
Edge +0.6PASS

Jacksonville has the stronger overall model profile, but the London matchup looks close enough that the available prices leave little separation. The forecast is Jacksonville 22.5, Houston 20.6 at neutral Wembley. Trevor Lawrence's most favourable passing matchups are downfield, although those areas occupy a small share of Jacksonville's recorded offense and should not be mistaken for a dependable source of repeated explosive gains.

Houston's Wednesday absences include Azeez Al-Shaair and Jalen Pitre. If either remains unavailable, Jacksonville could have more room to attack the middle and deeper areas. Houston can challenge a depleted Jaguars secondary in return: Montaric Brown missed practice, while Jourdan Lewis and Eric Murray were limited. These are provisional participation reports, not final absences, and no injury points have been added. C.J. Stroud remains Houston's expected starter. HOU +2.5 at PointsBet (AU), priced at 1.95, and Over 42.5 at SportsBet, priced at 1.90, each have only a 0.6-point model gap. Both remain PASS.

Why · JAX deep-right passing (+0.66 EPA/play vs HOU)

Situational

2026 through week 5 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
HOU · 446 dropbacks
C.J. Stroud
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.30 (317 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.43 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced29%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
JAX defence: pressure 27% · blitz 30%
JAX · 600 dropbacks
Trevor Lawrence
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (442 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (158 snaps)
Pressure rate faced26%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)10%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
HOU defence: pressure 30% · blitz 20%
HOU offence vs JAX coverage
ShellJAX usageHOU EPA/dbLeague
Cover 330% (209 snaps)+0.17 (164 snaps)+0.06
Cover 226% (183 snaps)-0.02 (162 snaps)0.00
Cover 116% (114 snaps)+0.36 (132 snaps)+0.06
Cover 410% (69 snaps)+0.16 (59 snaps)+0.07
Cover 68% (56 snaps)—-0.03
JAX man coverage 24% · HOU vs man -0.02, vs zone +0.10
JAX offence vs HOU coverage
ShellHOU usageJAX EPA/dbLeague
Cover 129% (178 snaps)+0.09 (124 snaps)+0.06
Cover 223% (143 snaps)+0.12 (141 snaps)0.00
Cover 322% (138 snaps)+0.04 (207 snaps)+0.06
Cover 412% (76 snaps)+0.09 (67 snaps)+0.07
Cover 68% (48 snaps)—-0.03
HOU man coverage 32% · JAX vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.06
HOU tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.33 vs +0.05 EPA (45 snaps)
RPO rate3% (9 snaps)
Screen rate5% (11 snaps)
Personnel11 72%, 12 12%, 21 7%, 10 4%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 20% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.10 (38 snaps) · neutral -0.19 (60 snaps)
JAX tendencies
Play action rate24% · — vs +0.25 EPA (38 snaps)
RPO rate1% (2 snaps)
Screen rate10% (16 snaps)
Personnel11 71%, 12 22%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 30% / 24%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.23 (43 snaps) · neutral -0.29 (40 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 5 · last updated 15 Oct 2026, 11:55 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 9,277 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 5. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 5; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

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savvyplays.comPublished 15/10/2026V3.2