NFL 2026 · Week 5
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
HOURating -0.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
TENRating -7.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
HOU offence vs TEN
short-middle passing
+0.22 EPA/play
TEN offence vs HOU
deep-right passing
+0.40 EPA/play
HOU offence vs TEN
deep-middle passing
+0.43 EPA/play
Market
Spread (TEN)
Open +7 → Now +7.5·Move +0.5
AU bestTEN +7.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)HOU -7 @ $1.87 PlayUp
Global bestTEN +7.5 @ $1.95 LowVig.ag
Total
Open 39.5 → Now 37.5·Move -2.0
AU best overOver 37.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 38.0 @ $1.89 TABtouch
Global best overOver 37.5 @ $1.94 Courtside
AU best HOU ML
$1.28 PlayUp
AU best TEN ML
$4.10 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model TEN -6.7 · total 37.8Spread · Analysis
TEN +7.5
$1.90 Dabble AU
Edge +0.8PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 37.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +0.3PASS
Tennessee +7.5 at Dabble AU, priced at 1.9, has a 0.8-point edge and is a PASS. The model projects Houston winning by 6.7, so the offered handicap narrowly favours Tennessee despite Houston being the projected winner. Houston's short-middle passing matchup shows +0.22 EPA per play against Tennessee's weakest zone. Over 37.5 at PointsBet (AU), priced at 1.9, has a 0.3-point edge and is also a PASS.
Will Anderson Jr. missed Wednesday practice with an ankle injury for Houston, while Tank Dell and Braden Smith were limited. Tennessee had Tony Pollard and Jeffery Simmons absent, with Amani Hooker in concussion protocol. These are practice updates rather than final game statuses; no new numerical injury adjustment is applied. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · HOU short-middle passing (+0.22 EPA/play vs TEN, TEN's weakest zone)
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
HOU · 446 dropbacks
C.J. Stroud
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.30 (317 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.43 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced29%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
TEN defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
TEN · 592 dropbacks
Cam Ward
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.08 (407 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.80 (185 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)7%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
HOU defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
HOU offence vs TEN coverage
| Shell | TEN usage | HOU EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 29% (173 snaps) | -0.02 (162 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (157 snaps) | +0.17 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 19% (116 snaps) | +0.36 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (56 snaps) | +0.16 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
TEN man coverage 27% · HOU vs man -0.02, vs zone +0.10
TEN offence vs HOU coverage
| Shell | HOU usage | TEN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 29% (178 snaps) | -0.30 (144 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 23% (143 snaps) | -0.02 (175 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (138 snaps) | -0.20 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (76 snaps) | -0.78 (45 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (48 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
HOU man coverage 32% · TEN vs man -0.21, vs zone -0.19
HOU tendencies
Play action rate22% · — vs -0.01 EPA (36 snaps)
RPO rate3% (7 snaps)
Screen rate4% (6 snaps)
Personnel11 72%, 12 12%, 21 7%, 10 4%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.15 (28 snaps) · neutral -0.12 (53 snaps)
TEN tendencies
Play action rate21% · — vs -0.08 EPA (29 snaps)
RPO rate7% (15 snaps)
Screen rate5% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 73%, 12 24%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 27%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.20 (56 snaps) · neutral -0.04 (57 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:04 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2