IND @ KC — NFL Week 2 Preview

NFL 2026 · Week 2

Away

IND

Indianapolis Colts

Home

Kansas City Chiefs

Kick-off

Mon 21 Sep, 10:20am AEST

Sun 20 Sep, 8:20pm ET

Venue

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Spread

KC -6.5

Total

46.5

IND ML

$3.63

KC ML

$1.35

AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm

Power Comparison

INDRating -3.4

Off EPA/play

+0.054

Def EPA/play

+0.115

Exp points

18.6

Offence by zone

+.09

+.21

-.07

-.25

-.12

+.04

-.10

+.04

+.07

+.03

+.01

+.08

.00

Defence by zone (EPA allowed)

+.22

-.05

+.02

.00

+.26

-.01

+.00

-.06

+.20

-.07

+.04

+.01

+.04

KCRating +2.8

Off EPA/play

+0.085

Def EPA/play

+0.035

Exp points

27.7

Offence by zone

-.04

-.18

-.14

+.08

-.15

+.03

+.14

+.12

-.06

+.02

+.05

+.02

Defence by zone (EPA allowed)

-.03

-.05

-.01

-.12

-.06

+.03

-.08

.00

-.06

-.10

-.01

-.05

+.04

Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

KC offence vs IND

deep-left passing

+0.19 EPA/play

IND offence vs KC

deep-middle passing

+0.16 EPA/play

KC offence vs IND

runs off left end

+0.14 EPA/play

Market

Spread (KC)

Open -6.5 → Now -6.5·Move 0.0

AU best

KC -6.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)

AU best (other side)

IND +7 @ $1.85 Unibet

Global best

KC -6.5 @ $1.91 BetUS

Total

Open 47.5 → Now 46.5·Move -1.0

AU best over

Over 45.5 @ $1.90 TAB

AU best under

Under 47.0 @ $1.87 TABtouch

Global best over

Over 40.5 @ $1.40 Courtside

AU best IND ML

$3.63 SportsBet

AU best KC ML

$1.35 Dabble AU

11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots

The Call

Edge noted / no bet: KC -6.5

Model KC +9.2 · total 46.3

Spread · Analysis

KC -6.5

$1.87 PointsBet (AU)

Edge +2.7EDGE NOTED / NO BET

Total · Analysis

Over 45.5

$1.90 TAB

Edge +0.8PASS

Kansas City are -6.5 at PointsBet (AU) at 1.87, and the model's 9.2-point margin puts the edge at just 2.7 points, well short of the 10-point Play bar in place through week 5. That keeps this a NOTED game: the model sees the gap but it stays under the Lean floor, so there's no side taken here. The rating leans on last season blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football phased in so far, still mostly outweighed by those two inputs. Both quarterbacks carry hand adjustments, 1.6 points for Patrick Mahomes and 0.8 for Daniel Jones. The model's early record sits at 1-0 against the spread this season.

The most interesting number is the deep-left passing matchup, where Kansas City project a +0.19 EPA/play advantage against Indianapolis. On last season's charting, Mahomes averaged -0.157 EPA per dropback under pressure compared to 0.252 clean, a reminder that protection matters even as the market keeps Kansas City clear favourites.

Why · KC deep-left passing (+0.19 EPA/play vs IND)

Hand adjustments · IND Daniel Jones +0.8 pts · KC Patrick Mahomes +1.6 pts

Situational

2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)

IND · 409 dropbacks

Daniel Jones

Clean pocket EPA/db+0.29 (295 snaps)

Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (114 snaps)

Pressure rate faced28%

Int-worthy rate4%

Drop rate (catchable)4%

QB-fault sack rate2%

League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured

KC defence: pressure 33% · blitz 34%

KC · 537 dropbacks

Patrick Mahomes

Clean pocket EPA/db+0.25 (373 snaps)

Under pressure EPA/db-0.16 (164 snaps)

Pressure rate faced31%

Int-worthy rate3%

Drop rate (catchable)6%

QB-fault sack rate2%

League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured

IND defence: pressure 29% · blitz 28%

IND offence vs KC coverage

Shell	KC usage	IND EPA/db	League
Cover 2	26% (149 snaps)	+0.13 (138 snaps)	0.00
Cover 1	22% (126 snaps)	+0.13 (135 snaps)	+0.06
Cover 3	21% (120 snaps)	+0.03 (158 snaps)	+0.06
Cover 4	12% (70 snaps)	+0.12 (64 snaps)	+0.07
Cover 0	7% (43 snaps)	—	+0.10
2-Man	7% (41 snaps)	—	+0.07

KC man coverage 36% · IND vs man +0.04, vs zone +0.09

KC offence vs IND coverage

Shell	IND usage	KC EPA/db	League
Cover 3	26% (182 snaps)	+0.17 (179 snaps)	+0.06
Cover 2	24% (167 snaps)	+0.24 (142 snaps)	0.00
Cover 1	24% (166 snaps)	-0.05 (171 snaps)	+0.06
Cover 4	8% (52 snaps)	+0.21 (75 snaps)	+0.07
2-Man	7% (47 snaps)	—	+0.07
Cover 0	6% (40 snaps)	—	+0.10

IND man coverage 37% · KC vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.15

IND tendencies

Play action rate28% · +0.13 vs +0.06 EPA (168 snaps)

RPO rate9% (90 snaps)

Screen rate5% (32 snaps)

Personnel11 64%, 12 26%, 13 9%

Def pressure / blitz / man29% / 28% / 37%

Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (230 snaps) · neutral -0.06 (135 snaps) · heavy -0.16 (40 snaps)

KC tendencies

Play action rate15% · +0.07 vs +0.08 EPA (105 snaps)

RPO rate14% (150 snaps)

Screen rate9% (63 snaps)

Personnel11 58%, 12 31%, 13 7%, 21 4%

Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 34% / 36%

Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (201 snaps) · neutral -0.17 (166 snaps) · heavy +0.22 (28 snaps)

Model Form

Spread

1-0

Total

0-0

Units

+0.8

2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI

Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 1,830 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (week 1), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.

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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2