NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
IND
Indianapolis Colts
@
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 10:20am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 8:20pm ET
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
INDRating -3.4
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
KCRating +2.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
KC offence vs IND
deep-left passing
+0.19 EPA/play
IND offence vs KC
deep-middle passing
+0.16 EPA/play
KC offence vs IND
runs off left end
+0.14 EPA/play
Market
Spread (KC)
Open -6.5 → Now -6.5·Move 0.0
AU bestKC -6.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
AU best (other side)IND +7 @ $1.85 Unibet
Global bestKC -6.5 @ $1.91 BetUS
Total
Open 47.5 → Now 46.5·Move -1.0
AU best overOver 45.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best underUnder 47.0 @ $1.87 TABtouch
Global best overOver 40.5 @ $1.40 Courtside
AU best IND ML
$3.63 SportsBet
AU best KC ML
$1.35 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: KC -6.5
Model KC +9.2 · total 46.3Spread · Analysis
KC -6.5
$1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.7EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 45.5
$1.90 TAB
Edge +0.8PASS
Kansas City are -6.5 at PointsBet (AU) at 1.87, and the model's 9.2-point margin puts the edge at just 2.7 points, well short of the 10-point Play bar in place through week 5. That keeps this a NOTED game: the model sees the gap but it stays under the Lean floor, so there's no side taken here. The rating leans on last season blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football phased in so far, still mostly outweighed by those two inputs. Both quarterbacks carry hand adjustments, 1.6 points for Patrick Mahomes and 0.8 for Daniel Jones. The model's early record sits at 1-0 against the spread this season.
The most interesting number is the deep-left passing matchup, where Kansas City project a +0.19 EPA/play advantage against Indianapolis. On last season's charting, Mahomes averaged -0.157 EPA per dropback under pressure compared to 0.252 clean, a reminder that protection matters even as the market keeps Kansas City clear favourites.
Why · KC deep-left passing (+0.19 EPA/play vs IND)
Hand adjustments · IND Daniel Jones +0.8 pts · KC Patrick Mahomes +1.6 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
IND · 409 dropbacks
Daniel Jones
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.29 (295 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (114 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
KC defence: pressure 33% · blitz 34%
KC · 537 dropbacks
Patrick Mahomes
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.25 (373 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.16 (164 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
IND defence: pressure 29% · blitz 28%
IND offence vs KC coverage
| Shell | KC usage | IND EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 26% (149 snaps) | +0.13 (138 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 22% (126 snaps) | +0.13 (135 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 21% (120 snaps) | +0.03 (158 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (70 snaps) | +0.12 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 7% (43 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
| 2-Man | 7% (41 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
KC man coverage 36% · IND vs man +0.04, vs zone +0.09
KC offence vs IND coverage
| Shell | IND usage | KC EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (182 snaps) | +0.17 (179 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (167 snaps) | +0.24 (142 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (166 snaps) | -0.05 (171 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (52 snaps) | +0.21 (75 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (47 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
IND man coverage 37% · KC vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.15
IND tendencies
Play action rate28% · +0.13 vs +0.06 EPA (168 snaps)
RPO rate9% (90 snaps)
Screen rate5% (32 snaps)
Personnel11 64%, 12 26%, 13 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man29% / 28% / 37%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (230 snaps) · neutral -0.06 (135 snaps) · heavy -0.16 (40 snaps)
KC tendencies
Play action rate15% · +0.07 vs +0.08 EPA (105 snaps)
RPO rate14% (150 snaps)
Screen rate9% (63 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 31%, 13 7%, 21 4%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 34% / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (201 snaps) · neutral -0.17 (166 snaps) · heavy +0.22 (28 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:50 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2