Power Comparison
Matchup Edges
Market
The Call
Under 41.5 at 1.92 with TABtouch remains the primary LEAN, with a 7.7-point gap to the model total. Indianapolis +6.5 at 1.97 with SportsBet is a PASS because its side-specific edge is only 0.9. The historical projection is relatively restrained despite Minnesota's deep-left passing matchup standing out; it is not a claim that the returning offence must struggle. Both published directions are analysis only.
Minnesota's availability has improved since the opening review. Christian Darrisaw, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison are available again, while Justin Jefferson and Brian O'Neill have no final designation. Jordan Mason was activated, with the inactive list still to confirm the final combination. Indianapolis is missing Tyler Warren, Sauce Gardner, Anthony Gould and CJ Allen, which weakens receiving support and defensive coverage options. Those changes deserve attention around a low model total, but no additional injury points have been inserted. The statistical sample remains fixed through Week 6.
Availability check
Checked 25 Oct 2026, 04:01 pm Sydney time · Final inactives pending
Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones · expected starter
Daniel Jones remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Tyler Warren, Anthony Gould and Sauce Gardner were ruled out Friday; CJ Allen was downgraded to out Saturday. Bryce Boettcher and Justin Walley remain questionable. Keenan Allen, Matt Goncalves and Jonathan Taylor finished with full participation. Warren's absence removes a receiving and blocking option, while Gardner and the linebacker absences complicate defending Minnesota's returning skill players.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24
Minnesota Vikings
Kyler Murray · expected starter
Kyler Murray remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Christian Darrisaw, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison are available again; Justin Jefferson and Brian O'Neill have no final designation. Jordan Mason was activated Saturday after his thumb injury; his final game-status listing was questionable. The returning tackles and targets help protection and receiving options, while Mason gives Minnesota another backfield option pending inactives.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24
Injury implications are qualitative. No additional numerical injury adjustments are applied.
Situational
| Shell | MIN usage | IND EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 2 | 37% (195 snaps) | +0.13 (138 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (127 snaps) | +0.03 (158 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (63 snaps) | +0.12 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 1 | 8% (40 snaps) | +0.13 (135 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Shell | IND usage | MIN EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (182 snaps) | +0.11 (155 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (167 snaps) | -0.12 (147 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (166 snaps) | -0.42 (125 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (52 snaps) | -0.09 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (47 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
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