IND @ MIN — NFL Week 7 Preview

NFL 2026 · Week 7

Away

IND

Indianapolis Colts

Home

MIN

Minnesota Vikings

Kick-off

Mon 26 Oct, 4:00am AEDT

Sun 25 Oct, 1:00pm ET

Venue

U.S. Bank Stadium

Spread

MIN -6.5

Total

41.5

IND ML

$3.48

MIN ML

$1.37

AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am

Power Comparison

INDRating +0.3

Off EPA/play

+0.082

Def EPA/play

+0.076

Exp points

14.1

Offence by zone

-.47

-.31

-.34

-.02

-.07

+.21

+.19

+.01

+.00

+.11

+.20

-.12

-.03

Defence by zone (EPA allowed)

+.14

+.02

-.09

+.17

-.15

+.20

+.25

+.14

-.03

-.01

+.06

-.15

MINRating +2.8

Off EPA/play

-0.017

Def EPA/play

-0.068

Exp points

19.7

Offence by zone

+.19

-.10

-.11

-.31

-.06

-.01

-.06

-.02

-.10

-.13

+.18

-.13

+.08

Defence by zone (EPA allowed)

-.26

+.05

-.06

-.05

-.31

-.30

-.04

-.10

+.24

-.06

-.11

-.10

-.23

Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

MIN offence vs IND

deep-left passing

+0.33 EPA/play

IND offence vs MIN

runs off left tackle

+0.24 EPA/play

MIN offence vs IND

runs behind left guard

+0.22 EPA/play

Market

Spread (MIN)

Open -6 → Now -6.5·Move -0.5

AU best

MIN -6.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU

AU best (other side)

IND +6.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet

Global best

MIN -6 @ $1.91 Hard Rock Bet

Total

Open 41.5 → Now 41.5·Move 0.0

AU best over

Over 41.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet

AU best under

Under 41.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU

Global best over

Over 41.5 @ $1.95 Bovada

AU best IND ML

$3.48 SportsBet

AU best MIN ML

$1.37 Dabble AU

10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots

The Call

Lean: Under 41.5

Model MIN +5.6 · total 33.8

Spread · Analysis

IND +6.5

$1.90 SportsBet

Edge +0.9PASS

Total · Analysis

Under 41.5

$1.92 Dabble AU

Edge +7.7LEAN

Under 41.5 at Dabble AU, priced at 1.92, carries a 7.7-point model gap and remains LEAN. Minnesota's defensive profile is the main reason for the low forecast: its model defensive rating is -0.068 EPA per play, against Indianapolis's 0.076, where lower is better. The projection is Minnesota 19.7, Indianapolis 14.1. The Colts have a highlighted rushing route off left tackle, but limited room for sustained offensive success in the broader model.

Injuries could complicate that defensive picture. Indianapolis had Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward and Justin Walley absent from Wednesday practice, while Minnesota's Justin Jefferson and Brian O'Neill were limited. The Colts also had Keenan Allen and Tyler Warren absent, with Jonathan Taylor limited. These are practice reports, not confirmed game absences, and no injury points have been added. Indianapolis +6.5 at SportsBet remains PASS with only a 0.9-point gap. The Under is analysis only; neither market is a formal recommendation.

Why · MIN deep-left passing (+0.33 EPA/play vs IND)

Situational

2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)

IND · 409 dropbacks

Daniel Jones

Clean pocket EPA/db+0.29 (295 snaps)

Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (114 snaps)

Pressure rate faced28%

Int-worthy rate4%

Drop rate (catchable)4%

QB-fault sack rate2%

League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured

MIN defence: pressure 34% · blitz 71%

MIN · 177 dropbacks

Kyler Murray

2025 sample with ARI

Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (132 snaps)

Under pressure EPA/db-0.64 (45 snaps)

Pressure rate faced25%

Int-worthy rate3%

Drop rate (catchable)5%

QB-fault sack rate3%

League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured

IND defence: pressure 29% · blitz 21%

IND offence vs MIN coverage

Shell	MIN usage	IND EPA/db	League
Cover 2	37% (195 snaps)	+0.13 (138 snaps)	0.00
Cover 3	24% (127 snaps)	+0.03 (158 snaps)	+0.06
Cover 4	12% (63 snaps)	+0.12 (64 snaps)	+0.07
Cover 1	8% (40 snaps)	+0.13 (135 snaps)	+0.06

MIN man coverage 18% · IND vs man +0.04, vs zone +0.09

MIN offence vs IND coverage

Shell	IND usage	MIN EPA/db	League
Cover 3	26% (182 snaps)	+0.11 (155 snaps)	+0.06
Cover 2	24% (167 snaps)	-0.12 (147 snaps)	0.00
Cover 1	24% (166 snaps)	-0.42 (125 snaps)	+0.06
Cover 4	8% (52 snaps)	-0.09 (54 snaps)	+0.07
2-Man	7% (47 snaps)	—	+0.07
Cover 0	6% (40 snaps)	—	+0.10

IND man coverage 37% · MIN vs man -0.33, vs zone -0.08

IND tendencies

Play action rate29% · -0.10 vs -0.16 EPA (70 snaps)

RPO rate4% (16 snaps)

Screen rate7% (17 snaps)

Personnel11 64%, 12 26%, 13 9%

Def pressure / blitz / man29% / 21% / 37%

Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.07 (43 snaps) · neutral +0.12 (77 snaps)

MIN tendencies

Play action rate30% · +0.04 vs -0.07 EPA (51 snaps)

RPO rate6% (17 snaps)

Screen rate12% (20 snaps)

Personnel11 65%, 12 20%, 21 8%

Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 71% / 18%

Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.12 (46 snaps) · neutral -0.20 (46 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread

1-0

Total

0-0

Units

+0.8

2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am

Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.

Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2