NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
IND
Indianapolis Colts
@
Home
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Spread
PIT -2.5
Total
44.5
IND ML
$2.20
PIT ML
$1.74
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
INDRating +2.1
Off EPA/play
+0.107
Def EPA/play
+0.070
Exp points
23.5
Offence by zone
-.21
+.06
-.20
-.16
+.10
+.09
+.11
+.14
+.03
+.04
+.08
+.03
+.20
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.15
+.02
+.05
+.04
-.20
-.10
+.19
-.01
+.23
-.01
-.01
-.10
-.07
PITRating -0.8
Off EPA/play
+0.082
Def EPA/play
+0.096
Exp points
23.4
Offence by zone
-.14
+.16
-.42
-.30
+.17
+.14
+.02
+.10
-.08
+.03
-.14
-.02
+.06
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.26
-.13
+.35
+.01
-.06
-.04
+.06
+.14
-.01
-.09
+.10
+.00
-.07
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
IND offence vs PIT
runs behind left guard
+0.27 EPA/play
PIT offence vs IND
runs off left end
+0.21 EPA/play
IND offence vs PIT
runs off right end
+0.18 EPA/play
Market
Spread (PIT)
Open -2.5 → Now -2.5·Move 0.0
AU best
PIT -1.5 @ $1.87 SportsBet
AU best (other side)
IND +3 @ $1.85 TAB
Global best
PIT -1 @ $1.78 BetOnline.ag
Total
Open 44.3 → Now 44.5·Move +0.2Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 44.0 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 44.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best over
Over 44.0 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best IND ML
$2.20 PointsBet (AU)
AU best PIT ML
$1.74 SportsBet
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: IND +3
Model PIT -0.1 · total 46.9Spread · Analysis
IND +3
$1.85 TAB
Edge +3.1EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 44
$1.87 PlayUp
Edge +2.9PASS
Indianapolis +3 at TAB, priced at 1.85, is NOTED with a 3.1-point edge. The model projects a near-even game, with Indianapolis ahead by 0.1, and includes the existing hand adjustment of 0.2 points for Daniel Jones. Runs behind left guard show a +0.27 EPA per play matchup advantage for the Colts. Over 44 at PlayUp, priced at 1.87, has a 2.9-point edge and is a PASS. Neither market is a recommendation.
Arden Key will miss time for Indianapolis with a hamstring injury; Tanor Bortolini and Ashton Dulin also missed Wednesday practice. Pittsburgh's Jalen Ramsey and Jamel Dean were absent, while Michael Pittman Jr. was limited. Practice participation does not establish final game status, and no new numerical injury adjustment is applied. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · IND runs behind left guard (+0.27 EPA/play vs PIT)
Hand adjustments · IND Daniel Jones +0.2 pts
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
IND · 409 dropbacks
Daniel Jones
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.29 (295 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (114 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PIT defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
PIT · 526 dropbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.23 (415 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.71 (111 snaps)
Pressure rate faced21%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
IND defence: pressure 29% · blitz —
IND offence vs PIT coverage
| Shell | PIT usage | IND EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 29% (200 snaps) | +0.03 (158 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (165 snaps) | +0.13 (135 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (144 snaps) | +0.13 (138 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (64 snaps) | +0.12 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (48 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
PIT man coverage 35% · IND vs man +0.04, vs zone +0.09
PIT offence vs IND coverage
| Shell | IND usage | PIT EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (182 snaps) | -0.00 (149 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (167 snaps) | +0.09 (152 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (166 snaps) | +0.04 (128 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (52 snaps) | -0.02 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (47 snaps) | -0.11 (40 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
IND man coverage 37% · PIT vs man +0.03, vs zone +0.04
IND tendencies
Play action rate31% · -0.24 vs -0.19 EPA (44 snaps)
RPO rate6% (15 snaps)
Screen rate10% (15 snaps)
Personnel11 64%, 12 26%, 13 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man29% / — / 37%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.08 (31 snaps) · neutral +0.10 (55 snaps)
PIT tendencies
Play action rate21% · — vs -0.31 EPA (35 snaps)
RPO rate9% (22 snaps)
Screen rate10% (17 snaps)
Personnel11 49%, 12 33%, 13 14%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 35%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.06 (38 snaps) · neutral -0.14 (46 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:04 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2