NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
IND
Indianapolis Colts
@
Home
WAS
Washington Commanders
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 12:30am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 9:30am ET
Venue
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
INDRating -0.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
WASRating +0.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
IND offence vs WAS
deep-middle passing
+0.40 EPA/play
WAS offence vs IND
deep-left passing
+0.34 EPA/play
IND offence vs WAS
short-middle passing
+0.20 EPA/play
Market
Spread (WAS)
Open +3.5 → Now +3.5·Move 0.0
AU bestWAS +4 @ $1.88 PlayUp
AU best (other side)IND -3.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU
Global bestWAS +4 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
Total
Open 47.0 → Now 47.5·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 47.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best underUnder 47.5 @ $1.91 SportsBet
Global best overOver 47.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best IND ML
$1.53 Dabble AU
AU best WAS ML
$2.65 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
QB situation unresolved - no rating basis
No rating basis
WAS: Jayden Daniels was limited on the Week 4 injury report and his London status remains uncertain; no supported Daniels-in-brace or Marcus Mariota adjustment is available.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATEDTotal · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATEDWashington's quarterback picture is the story here. Jayden Daniels was limited on the Week 4 injury report and his status for London remains uncertain, and there's no approved adjustment for a Daniels-in-brace scenario or for Marcus Mariota stepping in. The model margin and total simply aren't published for this one: there's no rating basis for Indianapolis-Washington until starter availability and the model's adjustment basis are established. Indianapolis carries a hand adjustment of 0.4 points for Daniel Jones, part of a rating built from last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of the team and scaled by roster continuity, but that's the only quarterback value locked in on either side. The market has Washington at -3.5, best price 4.0 at PlayUp.
With no rating to work from, there is simply nothing to price here either way. The one thing worth watching before kickoff is the starter availability update from Washington's camp; once Daniels' status, or his replacement, is confirmed and the model's adjustment basis is established, the game can be rated.
Why · QB situation unresolved - no rating basis (WAS)
Hand adjustments · IND Daniel Jones +0.4 pts
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
IND · 409 dropbacks
Daniel Jones
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.29 (295 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (114 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
WAS defence: pressure 31% · blitz 47%
WAS · 0 dropbacks
Starter not named
QB situation unresolved: no starter to profile
IND offence vs WAS coverage
| Shell | WAS usage | IND EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 25% (152 snaps) | +0.13 (135 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (147 snaps) | +0.03 (158 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 19% (120 snaps) | +0.13 (138 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (96 snaps) | +0.12 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
WAS man coverage 31% · IND vs man +0.04, vs zone +0.09
WAS offence vs IND coverage
| Shell | IND usage | WAS EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (182 snaps) | +0.08 (170 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (167 snaps) | +0.12 (103 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (166 snaps) | -0.18 (156 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (52 snaps) | +0.21 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (47 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
IND man coverage 37% · WAS vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.09
IND tendencies
Play action rate33% · — vs -0.15 EPA (36 snaps)
RPO rate7% (13 snaps)
Screen rate10% (11 snaps)
Personnel11 64%, 12 26%, 13 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man29% / — / 37%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.22 (26 snaps) · neutral +0.07 (44 snaps)
WAS tendencies
Play action rate23% · — vs +0.19 EPA (27 snaps)
RPO rate6% (11 snaps)
Screen rate6% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 59%, 12 30%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 47% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedneutral -0.36 (27 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:45 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2