NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
IND
Indianapolis Colts
@
Home
WAS
Washington Commanders
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 12:30am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 9:30am ET
Venue
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Spread
WAS +3.5
Total
47.5
IND ML
$1.53
WAS ML
$2.65
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm

Power Comparison

INDRating -0.9
Off EPA/play
+0.100
Def EPA/play
+0.117
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.08
+.20
-.21
-.24
+.07
+.16
-.06
+.03
+.03
+.11
+.03
+.03
+.12
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.16
+.02
+.10
-.05
+.08
+.03
+.07
-.04
+.26
+.07
+.01
-.02
+.03
WASRating +0.2
Off EPA/play
+0.062
Def EPA/play
+0.059
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.19
-.07
-.40
-.09
+.15
+.05
-.03
-.00
-.09
+.04
+.06
-.03
+.09
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.03
+.20
+.43
-.19
+.13
-.07
-.27
+.00
+.13
+.01
-.00
+.06
-.06
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

IND offence vs WAS
deep-middle passing
+0.40 EPA/play
WAS offence vs IND
deep-left passing
+0.34 EPA/play
IND offence vs WAS
short-middle passing
+0.20 EPA/play

Market

Spread (WAS)
Open +3.5 → Now +3.5·Move 0.0
AU best
WAS +4 @ $1.88 PlayUp
AU best (other side)
IND -3.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU
Global best
WAS +4 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
Total
Open 47.0 → Now 47.5·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 47.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 47.5 @ $1.91 SportsBet
Global best over
Over 47.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best IND ML
$1.53 Dabble AU
AU best WAS ML
$2.65 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots

The Call

QB situation unresolved - no rating basis
No rating basis
WAS: Jayden Daniels was limited on the Week 4 injury report and his London status remains uncertain; no supported Daniels-in-brace or Marcus Mariota adjustment is available.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED

Washington's quarterback picture is the story here. Jayden Daniels was limited on the Week 4 injury report and his status for London remains uncertain, and there's no approved adjustment for a Daniels-in-brace scenario or for Marcus Mariota stepping in. The model margin and total simply aren't published for this one: there's no rating basis for Indianapolis-Washington until starter availability and the model's adjustment basis are established. Indianapolis carries a hand adjustment of 0.4 points for Daniel Jones, part of a rating built from last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of the team and scaled by roster continuity, but that's the only quarterback value locked in on either side. The market has Washington at -3.5, best price 4.0 at PlayUp.

With no rating to work from, there is simply nothing to price here either way. The one thing worth watching before kickoff is the starter availability update from Washington's camp; once Daniels' status, or his replacement, is confirmed and the model's adjustment basis is established, the game can be rated.

Why · QB situation unresolved - no rating basis (WAS)
Hand adjustments · IND Daniel Jones +0.4 pts

Situational

2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
IND · 409 dropbacks
Daniel Jones
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.29 (295 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (114 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
WAS defence: pressure 31% · blitz 47%
WAS · 0 dropbacks
Starter not named
QB situation unresolved: no starter to profile
IND offence vs WAS coverage
ShellWAS usageIND EPA/dbLeague
Cover 125% (152 snaps)+0.13 (135 snaps)+0.06
Cover 324% (147 snaps)+0.03 (158 snaps)+0.06
Cover 219% (120 snaps)+0.13 (138 snaps)0.00
Cover 416% (96 snaps)+0.12 (64 snaps)+0.07
WAS man coverage 31% · IND vs man +0.04, vs zone +0.09
WAS offence vs IND coverage
ShellIND usageWAS EPA/dbLeague
Cover 326% (182 snaps)+0.08 (170 snaps)+0.06
Cover 224% (167 snaps)+0.12 (103 snaps)0.00
Cover 124% (166 snaps)-0.18 (156 snaps)+0.06
Cover 48% (52 snaps)+0.21 (49 snaps)+0.07
2-Man7% (47 snaps)—+0.07
Cover 06% (40 snaps)—+0.10
IND man coverage 37% · WAS vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.09
IND tendencies
Play action rate33% · — vs -0.15 EPA (36 snaps)
RPO rate7% (13 snaps)
Screen rate10% (11 snaps)
Personnel11 64%, 12 26%, 13 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man29% / — / 37%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.22 (26 snaps) · neutral +0.07 (44 snaps)
WAS tendencies
Play action rate23% · — vs +0.19 EPA (27 snaps)
RPO rate6% (11 snaps)
Screen rate6% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 59%, 12 30%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 47% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedneutral -0.36 (27 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:45 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2