The model leans Jaguars +3, with the best Australian line at PlayUp (1.8), against a market that has Cincinnati at -2.5 (best price Dabble AU, 1.9). That's a 7.6-point edge against the best line, short of the Lean floor at this stage of the season, so this is analysis rather than a tip, and the model's season record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 3. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 1.0 points for Joe Burrow. Early in the season the rating is still mostly last year's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team, scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample small at 5,586 plays and still mostly outweighed by that prior and the market. On last season's charting, Trevor Lawrence fell to -0.521 EPA per dropback under pressure, worse than Burrow's -0.297.

The total sits at 51.5, with the model's 49.2 producing just a 2.3-point edge, well under the threshold, so that side is a pass, and the market hasn't moved toward the model on either number.