NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Home
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
JAXRating +7.1
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
CINRating +0.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
JAX offence vs CIN
short-left passing
+0.29 EPA/play
JAX offence vs CIN
short-right passing
+0.30 EPA/play
CIN offence vs JAX
deep-right passing
+0.48 EPA/play
Market
Spread (CIN)
Open -2.5 → Now -2.5·Move 0.0
AU bestCIN -2.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)JAX +3 @ $1.80 PlayUp
Global bestCIN -2 @ $1.83 BetUS
Total
Open 51.3 → Now 51.5·Move +0.2
AU best overOver 51.0 @ $1.90 PlayUp
AU best underUnder 51.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best overOver 51.0 @ $1.91 MyBookie.ag
AU best CIN ML
$1.71 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Lean: JAX +3
Model CIN -4.6 · total 49.2Spread · Analysis
JAX +3
$1.80 PlayUp
Edge +7.6LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 51.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.3PASS
The model leans Jaguars +3, with the best Australian line at PlayUp (1.8), against a market that has Cincinnati at -2.5 (best price Dabble AU, 1.9). That's a 7.6-point edge against the best line, short of the Lean floor at this stage of the season, so this is analysis rather than a tip, and the model's season record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 3. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 1.0 points for Joe Burrow. Early in the season the rating is still mostly last year's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team, scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample small at 5,586 plays and still mostly outweighed by that prior and the market. On last season's charting, Trevor Lawrence fell to -0.521 EPA per dropback under pressure, worse than Burrow's -0.297.
The total sits at 51.5, with the model's 49.2 producing just a 2.3-point edge, well under the threshold, so that side is a pass, and the market hasn't moved toward the model on either number.
Why · JAX short-left passing (+0.29 EPA/play vs CIN, CIN's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · CIN Joe Burrow +1.0 pts
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
JAX · 600 dropbacks
Trevor Lawrence
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (442 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (158 snaps)
Pressure rate faced26%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)10%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CIN defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
CIN · 278 dropbacks
Joe Burrow
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.27 (195 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.30 (83 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
JAX defence: pressure 27% · blitz —
JAX offence vs CIN coverage
| Shell | CIN usage | JAX EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (197 snaps) | +0.04 (207 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 25% (153 snaps) | +0.09 (124 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 20% (124 snaps) | +0.12 (141 snaps) | 0.00 |
CIN man coverage 36% · JAX vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.06
CIN offence vs JAX coverage
| Shell | JAX usage | CIN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 30% (209 snaps) | +0.02 (157 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (183 snaps) | -0.34 (202 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 16% (114 snaps) | +0.18 (148 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 10% (69 snaps) | -0.15 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (56 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
JAX man coverage 24% · CIN vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.13
JAX tendencies
Play action rate26% · — vs +0.30 EPA (22 snaps)
RPO rate1% (2 snaps)
Screen rate9% (8 snaps)
Personnel11 71%, 12 22%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / — / 24%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.07 (30 snaps) · neutral -0.13 (26 snaps)
CIN tendencies
Play action rate18% · — vs +0.20 EPA (20 snaps)
RPO rate10% (17 snaps)
Screen rate8% (9 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 30%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.03 (28 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:42 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2