The model has Jacksonville by 5.5, well clear of Denver's -3.0 at home, and sees the spread gap at 8.0 points against the best Australian line of JAX +3.5 with Dabble AU. That's a Lean, not a Play, since weeks 1 to 5 need a 10-point edge before the model treats a game as a play, and the early-season record sits at 1-0 against the spread so far. The rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity; only 1,830 plays of 2026 football exist so far, a small sample still mostly outweighed by that blend. The model's read leans on Jacksonville's short-left passing game, rated at +0.32 EPA/play against Denver's defence in that zone.

On 2025 season charting, Trevor Lawrence averaged -0.521 EPA per dropback under pressure, worse than Bo Nix's -0.377, while Denver's defence brought pressure on 34% of snaps that year. The market hasn't moved toward the model's view either, with Denver still favourites at home.