NFL 2026 · Week 4
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 7:25am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 4:25pm ET
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
KCRating +5.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
LVRating +2.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
KC offence vs LV
short-left passing
+0.17 EPA/play
KC offence vs LV
runs off left end
+0.18 EPA/play
LV offence vs KC
short-right passing
+0.07 EPA/play
Market
Spread (LV)
Open +4.5 → Now +4.5·Move 0.0
AU bestLV +5 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best (other side)KC -4.5 @ $1.90 Unibet
Global bestLV +5 @ $1.87 PlayUp
Total
Open 47.5 → Now 47.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 47.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
AU best underUnder 48.0 @ $1.88 TABtouch
Global best overOver 47.5 @ $1.93 BetMGM
AU best KC ML
$1.48 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Lean: Under 48
Model LV +0.2 · total 40.3Spread · Analysis
LV +5
$1.87 PlayUp
Edge +5.2EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Under 48
$1.88 TABtouch
Edge +7.7LEAN
The model's primary read is the total: Under 48 at TABtouch's 48.0 (1.88), with the model's 40.3 projection running 7.7 points under the line, a Lean given weeks 1 to 5 sit under the higher early-season bar. On spread, Raiders +5 at PlayUp (1.87) shows a 5.2-point gap to the model's 0.2 margin, which the model notes but is short of the Lean floor. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 0.8 points for Patrick Mahomes, with the decay-weighted prior leaning on Oladokun's late-season form. The model also flags Las Vegas's short-right passing at a +0.07 EPA/play edge against Kansas City, underpinning the under lean.
Early in the season the rating blends last year's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team, scaled by roster continuity, with only 5,586 plays of 2026 football in the mix so far. The model's record sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals through week 3. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Why · LV short-right passing (+0.07 EPA/play vs KC)
Hand adjustments · KC Patrick Mahomes +0.8 pts
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
KC · 537 dropbacks
Patrick Mahomes
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.25 (373 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.16 (164 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LV defence: pressure 27% · blitz —
LV · 281 dropbacks
Kirk Cousins
2025 sample with ATL
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.09 (186 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (95 snaps)
Pressure rate faced34%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
KC defence: pressure 33% · blitz —
KC offence vs LV coverage
| Shell | LV usage | KC EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 38% (226 snaps) | +0.17 (179 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 22% (130 snaps) | +0.24 (142 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 14% (82 snaps) | -0.05 (171 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (69 snaps) | +0.21 (75 snaps) | +0.07 |
LV man coverage 20% · KC vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.15
LV offence vs KC coverage
| Shell | KC usage | LV EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 26% (149 snaps) | -0.48 (128 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 22% (126 snaps) | -0.07 (150 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 21% (120 snaps) | -0.06 (167 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (70 snaps) | -0.07 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 7% (43 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
| 2-Man | 7% (41 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
KC man coverage 36% · LV vs man -0.03, vs zone -0.23
KC tendencies
Play action rate38% · +0.39 vs +0.17 EPA (41 snaps)
RPO rate11% (20 snaps)
Screen rate19% (21 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 31%, 13 7%, 21 4%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / — / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (30 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (38 snaps)
LV tendencies
Play action rate24% · — vs +0.09 EPA (24 snaps)
RPO rate3% (5 snaps)
Screen rate7% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 35%, 13 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / — / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.33 (44 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:43 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2