The model rates Kansas City by 8.2 points here, well inside the 11.5 the Dolphins are getting at Unibet, so the gap on MIA +11.5 sits at 3.3 points, an edge the model notes but leaves well short of the 7-point Lean floor that applies in these opening weeks. That's analysis, not a tip: the model's spread record for the season sits at 1-0 through two weeks, hardly enough to lean on. The rating carries hand adjustments for both quarterbacks, a 1.2 point bump for Patrick Mahomes and a 0.9 point downgrade for Malik Willis. The rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 3,666 plays of 2026 football so far a small sample yet to outweigh that blend.

The total sits at 45.5 at PointsBet (AU) against a model total of 48.0, a 2.5 point edge that grades as a pass. On last season's charting, Kansas City's offence produced +0.24 EPA per play against Cover 2 shells, which Miami used on 35% of snaps that season, useful context rather than a case for the over.