NFL 2026 · Week 3
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
KCRating +2.5
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
MIARating -5.4
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
KC offence vs MIA
short-right passing
+0.19 EPA/play
KC offence vs MIA
short-left passing
+0.22 EPA/play
KC offence vs MIA
inside runs
+0.13 EPA/play
Market
Spread (MIA)
Open +11.5 → Now +11.5·Move 0.0
AU bestMIA +11.5 @ $1.91 Unibet
AU best (other side)KC -11 @ $1.95 PlayUp
Global bestMIA +11.5 @ $1.92 Caesars
Total
Open 45.5 → Now 46.0·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 45.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 46.0 @ $1.91 TABtouch
Global best overOver 30.5 @ $1.07 Courtside
AU best KC ML
$1.17 Dabble AU
AU best MIA ML
$6.05 SportsBet
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: MIA +11.5
Model MIA -8.2 · total 48.0Spread · Analysis
MIA +11.5
$1.91 Unibet
Edge +3.3EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 45.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.5PASS
The model rates Kansas City by 8.2 points here, well inside the 11.5 the Dolphins are getting at Unibet, so the gap on MIA +11.5 sits at 3.3 points, an edge the model notes but leaves well short of the 7-point Lean floor that applies in these opening weeks. That's analysis, not a tip: the model's spread record for the season sits at 1-0 through two weeks, hardly enough to lean on. The rating carries hand adjustments for both quarterbacks, a 1.2 point bump for Patrick Mahomes and a 0.9 point downgrade for Malik Willis. The rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 3,666 plays of 2026 football so far a small sample yet to outweigh that blend.
The total sits at 45.5 at PointsBet (AU) against a model total of 48.0, a 2.5 point edge that grades as a pass. On last season's charting, Kansas City's offence produced +0.24 EPA per play against Cover 2 shells, which Miami used on 35% of snaps that season, useful context rather than a case for the over.
Why · KC short-right passing (+0.19 EPA/play vs MIA)
Hand adjustments · KC Patrick Mahomes +1.2 pts · MIA Malik Willis -0.9 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
KC · 537 dropbacks
Patrick Mahomes
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.25 (373 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.16 (164 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
MIA defence: pressure 27% · blitz 33%
MIA · 38 dropbacks
Malik Willis
only 38 2025 dropbacks (min 100)
KC defence: pressure 33% · blitz 34%
KC offence vs MIA coverage
| Shell | MIA usage | KC EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 35% (208 snaps) | +0.24 (142 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (143 snaps) | +0.17 (179 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 20% (120 snaps) | -0.05 (171 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (42 snaps) | +0.21 (75 snaps) | +0.07 |
MIA man coverage 28% · KC vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.15
MIA offence vs KC coverage
| Shell | KC usage | MIA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 26% (149 snaps) | -0.22 (139 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 22% (126 snaps) | +0.02 (66 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 21% (120 snaps) | -0.08 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (70 snaps) | +0.29 (61 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 7% (43 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
| 2-Man | 7% (41 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
KC man coverage 36% · MIA vs man +0.25, vs zone -0.07
KC tendencies
Play action rate15% · +0.07 vs +0.08 EPA (105 snaps)
RPO rate14% (150 snaps)
Screen rate9% (63 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 31%, 13 7%, 21 4%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 34% / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (201 snaps) · neutral -0.17 (166 snaps) · heavy +0.22 (28 snaps)
MIA tendencies
Play action rate27% · +0.12 vs -0.06 EPA (146 snaps)
RPO rate6% (54 snaps)
Screen rate11% (60 snaps)
Personnel11 39%, 21 29%, 12 11%, 22 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 33% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.00 (189 snaps) · neutral -0.01 (172 snaps) · heavy -0.12 (62 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 2 · last updated 24 Sept 2026, 04:09 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2