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NFL 2026 · Week 7
Away
KC
Kansas City Chiefs
@
Home
SEA
Seattle Seahawks
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 11:20am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 8:20pm ET
Venue
Lumen Field
Spread
SEA -2.5
Total
42.5
KC ML
$2.25
SEA ML
$1.72
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am

Power Comparison

KCRating +9.3
Off EPA/play
+0.116
Def EPA/play
-0.053
Exp points
21.7
Offence by zone
+.42
-.26
+.19
+.09
+.09
-.02
+.20
-.27
+.31
+.10
+.16
+.14
+.07
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.21
-.21
-.10
-.28
+.03
-.29
+.01
+.01
-.12
+.09
-.15
-.17
-.05
SEARating -1.6
Off EPA/play
-0.021
Def EPA/play
+0.008
Exp points
11.4
Offence by zone
-.41
-.02
+.36
-.25
-.16
+.05
-.15
-.17
+.06
-.17
-.20
+.04
-.02
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.56
+.12
-.34
-.03
-.22
+.10
-.36
-.04
-.05
+.04
-.01
+.01
+.03
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

KC offence vs SEA
inside runs
+0.14 EPA/play
SEA offence vs KC
deep-right passing
+0.26 EPA/play
KC offence vs SEA
runs off left tackle
+0.26 EPA/play

Market

Spread (SEA)
Open -2.5 → Now -2.5·Move 0.0
AU best
SEA -2.5 @ $1.89 Unibet
AU best (other side)
KC +3 @ $1.85 TAB
Global best
SEA -2.5 @ $1.89 Unibet
Total
Open 42.5 → Now 42.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.91 TABtouch
AU best under
Under 43.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Global best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.93 Caesars
AU best KC ML
$2.25 PointsBet (AU)
AU best SEA ML
$1.72 Unibet
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots

The Call

Lean: KC +3
Model SEA -10.2 · total 33.1
Spread · Analysis
KC +3
$1.85 TAB
Edge +13.2LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 43.5
$1.85 Dabble AU
Edge +10.4LEAN

Kansas City +3 at TAB, priced at 1.85, has a 13.2-point model gap but remains LEAN because away selections are analysis only. The Chiefs have the stronger offensive and defensive profiles, while Seattle's limited offensive production drives the low forecast. Inside runs are Kansas City's most frequently used highlighted route, giving the Chiefs a way to sustain possessions without requiring Patrick Mahomes to force the passing game.

Kansas City's protection and receiving options need attention. Josh Simmons, Jaylon Moore and Rashee Rice missed Wednesday practice, while Travis Kelce was limited. Mahomes participated fully with his knee listed. Seattle could regain Anthony Bradford and Zach Charbonnet, but neither return is confirmed. Its own practice table was not present in the captured report, and those possibilities have not been converted into extra points. Under 43.5 at Dabble AU, priced at 1.85, is also LEAN. Despite the sizeable gaps, neither direction qualifies as a formal recommendation.

Why · KC inside runs (+0.14 EPA/play vs SEA)

Situational

2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
KC · 537 dropbacks
Patrick Mahomes
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.25 (373 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.16 (164 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SEA defence: pressure 34% · blitz 22%
SEA · 502 dropbacks
Sam Darnold
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.37 (363 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (139 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
KC defence: pressure 33% · blitz 27%
KC offence vs SEA coverage
ShellSEA usageKC EPA/dbLeague
Cover 231% (215 snaps)+0.24 (142 snaps)0.00
Cover 325% (171 snaps)+0.17 (179 snaps)+0.06
Cover 118% (122 snaps)-0.05 (171 snaps)+0.06
2-Man7% (48 snaps)—+0.07
Cover 47% (48 snaps)+0.21 (75 snaps)+0.07
Cover 67% (46 snaps)—-0.03
SEA man coverage 28% · KC vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.15
SEA offence vs KC coverage
ShellKC usageSEA EPA/dbLeague
Cover 226% (149 snaps)-0.00 (100 snaps)0.00
Cover 122% (126 snaps)+0.29 (85 snaps)+0.06
Cover 321% (120 snaps)+0.09 (164 snaps)+0.06
Cover 412% (70 snaps)+0.20 (61 snaps)+0.07
Cover 07% (43 snaps)—+0.10
2-Man7% (41 snaps)—+0.07
KC man coverage 36% · SEA vs man +0.23, vs zone +0.08
KC tendencies
Play action rate35% · +0.32 vs +0.11 EPA (61 snaps)
RPO rate10% (31 snaps)
Screen rate17% (30 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 31%, 13 7%, 21 4%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 27% / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.14 (46 snaps) · neutral -0.13 (67 snaps)
SEA tendencies
Play action rate27% · +0.22 vs -0.02 EPA (60 snaps)
RPO rate4% (15 snaps)
Screen rate11% (23 snaps)
Personnel11 42%, 12 28%, 21 14%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 22% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.13 (76 snaps) · neutral -0.27 (63 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2