Both markets fall short of the model's bar this week. Denver +3 with PlayUp is the best AU line, and the model's edge there is just 0.2 points, nowhere near the threshold. The total gets more attention: TABtouch has Under 45.5 at 1.88, and the model projects 42.0, a 2.5-point edge that's still under the early-season Lean floor of 7 points, so this sits as noted and nothing more. Denver's rating still leans heavily on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, and with only 3,666 plays of 2026 football banked so far, that sample stays largely outweighed by the prior. The season record sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals through week 2.

On last year's charting, Stafford averaged 0.408 EPA per dropback when clean but dropped to -0.334 under pressure. That gap doesn't translate into a market edge worth acting on here, and neither market clears the bar this week.