NFL 2026 · Week 3
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 10:20am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 8:20pm ET
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
LARating +6.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
DENRating +0.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
LA offence vs DEN
short-left passing
+0.20 EPA/play
LA offence vs DEN
inside runs
+0.14 EPA/play
DEN offence vs LA
short-left passing
+0.07 EPA/play
Market
Spread (DEN)
Open +2.5 → Now +2.5·Move 0.0
AU bestDEN +3 @ $1.75 PlayUp
AU best (other side)LA -2.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global bestDEN +3 @ $1.75 PlayUp
Total
Open 45.5 → Now 45.0·Move -0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 44.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best underUnder 45.5 @ $1.88 TABtouch
Global best overOver 24.5 @ $1.02 Courtside
AU best LA ML
$1.71 Bet Right
AU best DEN ML
$2.20 Ladbrokes
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model DEN -2.8 · total 42.0Spread · Analysis
DEN +3
$1.75 PlayUp
Edge +0.2PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 45.5
$1.88 TABtouch
Edge +2.5PASS
Both markets fall short of the model's bar this week. Denver +3 with PlayUp is the best AU line, and the model's edge there is just 0.2 points, nowhere near the threshold. The total gets more attention: TABtouch has Under 45.5 at 1.88, and the model projects 42.0, a 2.5-point edge that's still under the early-season Lean floor of 7 points, so this sits as noted and nothing more. Denver's rating still leans heavily on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, and with only 3,666 plays of 2026 football banked so far, that sample stays largely outweighed by the prior. The season record sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals through week 2.
On last year's charting, Stafford averaged 0.408 EPA per dropback when clean but dropped to -0.334 under pressure. That gap doesn't translate into a market edge worth acting on here, and neither market clears the bar this week.
Why · LA short-left passing (+0.20 EPA/play vs DEN)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
LA · 617 dropbacks
Matthew Stafford
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.41 (468 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.33 (149 snaps)
Pressure rate faced24%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DEN defence: pressure 35% · blitz 32%
DEN · 638 dropbacks
Bo Nix
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (466 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.38 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced27%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LA defence: pressure 32% · blitz 20%
LA offence vs DEN coverage
| Shell | DEN usage | LA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (215 snaps) | +0.09 (149 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (162 snaps) | +0.26 (166 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (112 snaps) | +0.24 (114 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (61 snaps) | +0.34 (65 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (50 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
DEN man coverage 45% · LA vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.28
DEN offence vs LA coverage
| Shell | LA usage | DEN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 28% (184 snaps) | +0.09 (205 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (160 snaps) | +0.06 (182 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (116 snaps) | +0.26 (120 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (75 snaps) | +0.11 (70 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (52 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
LA man coverage 26% · DEN vs man +0.25, vs zone +0.07
LA tendencies
Play action rate35% · +0.31 vs +0.17 EPA (216 snaps)
RPO rate1% (5 snaps)
Screen rate7% (45 snaps)
Personnel11 60%, 13 31%, 12 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 20% / 26%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.08 (265 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (115 snaps) · heavy +0.12 (25 snaps)
DEN tendencies
Play action rate24% · +0.06 vs +0.13 EPA (163 snaps)
RPO rate9% (95 snaps)
Screen rate11% (76 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 14%, 22 8%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 32% / 45%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (238 snaps) · neutral -0.17 (102 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 2 · last updated 24 Sept 2026, 04:11 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2