NFL 2026 · Week 7
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 7:25am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 4:25pm ET
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am
Power Comparison
LARating +1.4
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
LVRating -4.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
LV offence vs LA
short-right passing
+0.42 EPA/play
LA offence vs LV
short-right passing
+0.28 EPA/play
LA offence vs LV
short-middle passing
+0.24 EPA/play
Market
Spread (LV)
Open +4.5 → Now +4.5·Move 0.0
AU bestLV +4.5 @ $1.89 SportsBet
AU best (other side)LA -4 @ $1.90 TAB
Global bestLV +4.5 @ $1.91 ReBet
Total
Open 47.5 → Now 48.5·Move +1.0
AU best overOver 47.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
AU best underUnder 48.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
Global best overOver 47.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
AU best LA ML
$1.48 Bet Right
AU best LV ML
$2.85 Unibet
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model LV -4.3 · total 45.5Spread · Analysis
LA -4
$1.90 TAB
Edge +0.3PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 48.5
$1.90 SportsBet
Edge +3.0PASS
Under 48.5 at SportsBet, priced at 1.90, has a 3.0-point model gap and remains PASS, short of the LEAN floor. The forecast favours the Rams overall, but the available spread also leaves little separation: Rams -4 at TAB carries only a 0.3-point gap. Both offences have favourable short-passing routes, with the Rams' stronger defensive profile providing the main difference between the teams.
The Rams' new absences matter to interpreting that history. Davante Adams and Poona Ford are on injured reserve, Kobie Turner is expected to miss several weeks, and Trent McDuffie's status remains under assessment. Those changes could affect both Matthew Stafford's receiving options and the resistance facing Kirk Cousins. Brandon McManus also replaces injured kicker Blake Grupe. The model has no automatic numerical adjustment for those developments. Current practice tables were not available from the captured team reports, so later availability remains pending. Both markets stay PASS, with no formal recommendation.
Why · LA short-right passing (+0.28 EPA/play vs LV)
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
LA · 617 dropbacks
Matthew Stafford
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.41 (468 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.33 (149 snaps)
Pressure rate faced24%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LV defence: pressure 27% · blitz 27%
LV · 281 dropbacks
Kirk Cousins
2025 sample with ATL
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.09 (186 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (95 snaps)
Pressure rate faced34%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LA defence: pressure 32% · blitz 31%
LA offence vs LV coverage
| Shell | LV usage | LA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 38% (226 snaps) | +0.26 (166 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 22% (130 snaps) | +0.24 (114 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 14% (82 snaps) | +0.09 (149 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (69 snaps) | +0.34 (65 snaps) | +0.07 |
LV man coverage 20% · LA vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.28
LV offence vs LA coverage
| Shell | LA usage | LV EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 28% (184 snaps) | -0.06 (167 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (160 snaps) | -0.48 (128 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (116 snaps) | -0.07 (150 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (75 snaps) | -0.07 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (52 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
LA man coverage 26% · LV vs man -0.03, vs zone -0.23
LA tendencies
Play action rate25% · +0.06 vs +0.09 EPA (66 snaps)
RPO rate1% (3 snaps)
Screen rate6% (17 snaps)
Personnel11 60%, 13 31%, 12 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 31% / 26%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (71 snaps) · neutral -0.11 (68 snaps) · heavy -0.27 (25 snaps)
LV tendencies
Play action rate23% · +0.36 vs +0.11 EPA (53 snaps)
RPO rate3% (12 snaps)
Screen rate7% (17 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 35%, 13 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 27% / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.07 (93 snaps) · neutral -0.15 (44 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2