NFL 2026 · Week 4
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PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
LARating +5.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
PHIRating -3.4
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
PHI offence vs LA
inside runs
+0.26 EPA/play
LA offence vs PHI
inside runs
+0.19 EPA/play
LA offence vs PHI
short-right passing
+0.11 EPA/play
Market
Spread (PHI)
Open +3 → Now +3·Move 0.0
AU bestPHI +3.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)LA -3 @ $1.90 Unibet
Global bestPHI +3.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Total
Open 44.5 → Now 43.5·Move -1.0Moved toward model
AU best overOver 43.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best underUnder 44.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best overOver 43.5 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
AU best LA ML
$1.62 Dabble AU
AU best PHI ML
$2.40 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: Under 44
Model PHI -6.3 · total 38.9Spread · Analysis
LA -3
$1.90 Unibet
Edge +3.3EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Under 44
$1.88 PlayUp
Edge +5.1EDGE NOTED / NO BET
The model leans toward the under here, with the primary signal on the total: an edge of 5.1 points against the PlayUp best line of 44, well short of the 10-point bar required before week 6. That's a NOTED gap, not a Lean. On the spread, the model has Rams -3 against Unibet's -3.0 best line, an edge of 3.3 points, also just noted. Early season, the rating is still last year's form blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample thin at 5,586 plays. The season-to-date record sits at 1-0 against the spread.
The matchup numbers support the lean: Rams inside runs graded at +0.19 EPA per play against Philadelphia, which the model flags as the Eagles' weakest zone. On last season's charting, Stafford held up better under pressure than Hurts, at -0.334 EPA per dropback versus -0.663. Neither market has cleared the early-season threshold, so this remains analysis rather than a position.
Why · LA inside runs (+0.19 EPA/play vs PHI, PHI's weakest zone)
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
LA · 617 dropbacks
Matthew Stafford
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.41 (468 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.33 (149 snaps)
Pressure rate faced24%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PHI defence: pressure 33% · blitz —
PHI · 486 dropbacks
Jalen Hurts
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.33 (351 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.66 (135 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LA defence: pressure 32% · blitz —
LA offence vs PHI coverage
| Shell | PHI usage | LA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (221 snaps) | +0.09 (149 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (140 snaps) | +0.26 (166 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 18% (114 snaps) | +0.24 (114 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (43 snaps) | +0.34 (65 snaps) | +0.07 |
PHI man coverage 44% · LA vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.28
PHI offence vs LA coverage
| Shell | LA usage | PHI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 28% (184 snaps) | +0.23 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (160 snaps) | -0.05 (109 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (116 snaps) | +0.11 (127 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (75 snaps) | -0.09 (77 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (52 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
LA man coverage 26% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
LA tendencies
Play action rate24% · — vs +0.05 EPA (29 snaps)
RPO rate— (0 snaps)
Screen rate6% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 60%, 13 31%, 12 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / — / 26%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.02 (29 snaps) · neutral -0.01 (35 snaps)
PHI tendencies
Play action rate18% · — vs +0.02 EPA (19 snaps)
RPO rate9% (15 snaps)
Screen rate7% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / — / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.03 (53 snaps) · neutral +0.04 (29 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:43 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2