NFL 2026 · Week 3
Away
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers
@
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
LACRating -2.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
BUFRating +4.1
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
BUF offence vs LAC
short-left passing
+0.40 EPA/play
BUF offence vs LAC
short-right passing
+0.23 EPA/play
LAC offence vs BUF
deep-left passing
+0.34 EPA/play
Market
Spread (BUF)
Open -7 → Now -7.5·Move -0.5Moved toward model
AU bestBUF -6.5 @ $1.80 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)LAC +7.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global bestBUF -6.5 @ $1.80 Dabble AU
Total
Open 50.5 → Now 50.0·Move -0.5
AU best overOver 49.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 50.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
Global best overOver 28.5 @ $1.02 Courtside
AU best LAC ML
$4.10 SportsBet
AU best BUF ML
$1.30 PlayUp
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: Over 49.5
Model BUF +8.4 · total 53.7Spread · Analysis
BUF -6.5
$1.80 Dabble AU
Edge +1.9PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 49.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +4.2EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Buffalo is favoured at home, and the model's margin of 8.4 leaves the spread edge at just 1.9 points against the best line of BUF -6.5 at Dabble AU, well short of the model's threshold, so the Pass stands. The total is the sharper number: the model's 53.7 against the best line of Over 49.5 at PointsBet (AU) produces a 4.2-point edge, which the model notes but which sits under the Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5. The early-season record so far is 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals. With half the rating still weighted to prior form, the model blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both teams and scales that by roster continuity, and the 2026 sample is small at 3,666 plays, still mostly outweighed by last season and the market.
The model's own rating work shows Buffalo's short-left passing at +0.40 EPA/play against the Chargers' defence, a point that supports the shootout lean in the total even though the model has no rated position on either market here.
Why · BUF short-left passing (+0.40 EPA/play vs LAC)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
LAC · 566 dropbacks
Justin Herbert
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.32 (359 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (207 snaps)
Pressure rate faced37%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
BUF defence: pressure 34% · blitz 25%
BUF · 506 dropbacks
Josh Allen
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.34 (379 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (127 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LAC defence: pressure 30% · blitz 21%
LAC offence vs BUF coverage
| Shell | BUF usage | LAC EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 26% (138 snaps) | +0.07 (130 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (119 snaps) | +0.05 (158 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (91 snaps) | +0.05 (193 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 11% (58 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (58 snaps) | -0.36 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
BUF man coverage 31% · LAC vs man +0.07, vs zone -0.04
BUF offence vs LAC coverage
| Shell | LAC usage | BUF EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 31% (184 snaps) | +0.17 (148 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (151 snaps) | +0.21 (121 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 13% (77 snaps) | +0.12 (198 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (68 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
LAC man coverage 22% · BUF vs man +0.13, vs zone +0.24
LAC tendencies
Play action rate23% · +0.06 vs -0.02 EPA (157 snaps)
RPO rate3% (28 snaps)
Screen rate6% (40 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 21 14%, 22 7%, 20 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 21% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (240 snaps) · neutral -0.27 (103 snaps)
BUF tendencies
Play action rate26% · +0.37 vs +0.13 EPA (152 snaps)
RPO rate7% (75 snaps)
Screen rate9% (54 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 12%, 22 12%, 21 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 25% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.09 (204 snaps) · neutral -0.00 (173 snaps) · heavy +0.06 (38 snaps)
Model Form
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 3,666 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (weeks 1 to 2), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.
savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2