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NFL 2026 · Week 6
Away
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers
@
Home
KC
Kansas City Chiefs
Kick-off
Mon 19 Oct, 7:25am AEDT
Sun 18 Oct, 4:25pm ET
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Spread
KC -7.75
Total
42.5
LAC ML
$4.50
KC ML
$1.26
AU consensus as of 15/10/2026, 11:39:22 am

Power Comparison

LACRating -4.9
Off EPA/play
-0.081
Def EPA/play
+0.007
Exp points
9.8
Offence by zone
-.08
-.28
-.21
-.07
-.23
-.23
-.31
+.13
+.20
-.20
-.11
-.20
+.06
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.01
-.18
+.21
-.07
-.44
+.00
+.37
+.26
-.12
-.30
-.13
-.10
-.05
KCRating +6.7
Off EPA/play
+0.129
Def EPA/play
+0.008
Exp points
22.4
Offence by zone
+.49
-.40
+.16
+.03
-.16
+.19
+.17
+.05
+.18
-.06
+.20
+.17
-.01
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.13
-.26
-.10
-.22
+.09
-.05
-.04
+.08
-.11
+.07
-.12
-.19
-.12
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

KC offence vs LAC
runs off left end
+0.55 EPA/play
KC offence vs LAC
short-right passing
+0.19 EPA/play
KC offence vs LAC
deep-left passing
+0.48 EPA/play

Market

Spread (KC)
Open -8 → Now -8·Move 0.0
AU best
KC -7.5 @ $1.87 SportsBet
AU best (other side)
LAC +8 @ $1.93 Unibet
Global best
KC -7.5 @ $1.87 SportsBet
Total
Open 42.5 → Now 42.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.91 SportsBet
AU best under
Under 42.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best over
Over 41.5 @ $1.91 theScore Bet
AU best LAC ML
$4.50 PointsBet (AU)
AU best KC ML
$1.26 Dabble AU
10 AU books · 33 total · 7 snapshots

The Call

Lean: Under 42.5
Model KC +12.6 · total 32.1
Spread · Model recommendation
KC -7.5
$1.87 SportsBet
Edge +5.1PLAY
Total · Analysis
Under 42.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +10.4LEAN

Both defenses have strong model profiles, but Kansas City's offense is considerably further ahead. The Chargers' difficulty generating efficient offense drives the low forecast, while the Chiefs have a favourable route around the left edge and through shorter throws to the right. Patrick Mahomes participated fully Wednesday with a knee listing; Justin Herbert remains the Chargers' expected starter.

The Chargers' protection and receiving options need attention. Joe Alt missed practice with a neck injury, Tre Harris was absent and Ladd McConkey was limited. Derwin James and Donte Jackson also missed practice, potentially weakening the defense asked to keep this game close. Kansas City has its own uncertainty with Rashee Rice absent and Josh Simmons limited. These are provisional reports, with no extra injury points added. KC -7.5 at SportsBet, priced at 1.87, qualifies as PLAY with a 5.1-point edge. Under 42.5 at PointsBet (AU) has the larger numerical gap but remains LEAN because Under selections are analysis only. Neither label implies that a bet has been placed.

Why · KC runs off left end (+0.55 EPA/play vs LAC, LAC's weakest zone)

Situational

2026 through week 5 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
LAC · 566 dropbacks
Justin Herbert
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.32 (359 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (207 snaps)
Pressure rate faced37%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
KC defence: pressure 33% · blitz 29%
KC · 537 dropbacks
Patrick Mahomes
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.25 (373 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.16 (164 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LAC defence: pressure 30% · blitz 27%
LAC offence vs KC coverage
ShellKC usageLAC EPA/dbLeague
Cover 226% (149 snaps)+0.07 (130 snaps)0.00
Cover 122% (126 snaps)+0.05 (193 snaps)+0.06
Cover 321% (120 snaps)+0.05 (158 snaps)+0.06
Cover 412% (70 snaps)-0.36 (59 snaps)+0.07
Cover 07% (43 snaps)—+0.10
2-Man7% (41 snaps)—+0.07
KC man coverage 36% · LAC vs man +0.07, vs zone -0.04
KC offence vs LAC coverage
ShellLAC usageKC EPA/dbLeague
Cover 331% (184 snaps)+0.17 (179 snaps)+0.06
Cover 226% (151 snaps)+0.24 (142 snaps)0.00
Cover 113% (77 snaps)-0.05 (171 snaps)+0.06
Cover 412% (68 snaps)+0.21 (75 snaps)+0.07
LAC man coverage 22% · KC vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.15
LAC tendencies
Play action rate27% · -0.03 vs -0.28 EPA (47 snaps)
RPO rate3% (10 snaps)
Screen rate8% (14 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 21 14%, 22 7%, 20 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 27% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.10 (82 snaps) · neutral -0.13 (53 snaps)
KC tendencies
Play action rate36% · +0.32 vs +0.14 EPA (52 snaps)
RPO rate10% (24 snaps)
Screen rate18% (26 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 31%, 13 7%, 21 4%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 29% / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.15 (45 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (49 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 5 · last updated 15 Oct 2026, 11:55 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 9,277 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 5. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 5; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 15/10/2026V3.2