The model's primary read here is the spread, where Seahawks -7 is the AU best line at Unibet (1.9), and the model's edge of 5.8 points sits short of the Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5, which is 7 points. That means this is noted, not acted on: the gap is there but under the threshold. Seattle's season record so far is 1-0 against the spread. The rating still blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team (the anchor) and scales that by roster continuity, with only 5,586 plays of 2026 football in the sample so far and last season and the market still doing most of the work. On last season's charting, Darnold put up -0.517 EPA per dropback under pressure against a Chargers defence that faced a 30% pressure rate, while Seattle's short-left passing shows a +0.39 EPA/play edge against Los Angeles' weakest zone.

The total also lands in NOTED territory: Under 43.5 at SportsBet (1.86) carries a 5.2-point edge, again short of the 7-point Lean floor, so there's no action there either. The secondary market reads consistent with the spread story, both pointing the same direction without clearing the early-season bar.