NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers
@
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 7:25am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 4:25pm ET
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
LACRating -4.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
SEARating +5.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
SEA offence vs LAC
short-left passing
+0.39 EPA/play
SEA offence vs LAC
short-right passing
+0.25 EPA/play
LAC offence vs SEA
short-left passing
+0.19 EPA/play
Market
Spread (SEA)
Open -7 → Now -7·Move 0.0
AU bestSEA -7 @ $1.90 Unibet
AU best (other side)LAC +7.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global bestSEA -7 @ $1.90 Unibet
Total
Open 43.0 → Now 42.8·Move -0.2Moved toward model
AU best overOver 42.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 43.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
Global best overOver 42.5 @ $1.92 LowVig.ag
AU best LAC ML
$3.90 SportsBet
AU best SEA ML
$1.29 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: SEA -7
Model SEA +12.8 · total 38.3Spread · Analysis
SEA -7
$1.90 Unibet
Edge +5.8EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Under 43.5
$1.86 SportsBet
Edge +5.2EDGE NOTED / NO BET
The model's primary read here is the spread, where Seahawks -7 is the AU best line at Unibet (1.9), and the model's edge of 5.8 points sits short of the Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5, which is 7 points. That means this is noted, not acted on: the gap is there but under the threshold. Seattle's season record so far is 1-0 against the spread. The rating still blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team (the anchor) and scales that by roster continuity, with only 5,586 plays of 2026 football in the sample so far and last season and the market still doing most of the work. On last season's charting, Darnold put up -0.517 EPA per dropback under pressure against a Chargers defence that faced a 30% pressure rate, while Seattle's short-left passing shows a +0.39 EPA/play edge against Los Angeles' weakest zone.
The total also lands in NOTED territory: Under 43.5 at SportsBet (1.86) carries a 5.2-point edge, again short of the 7-point Lean floor, so there's no action there either. The secondary market reads consistent with the spread story, both pointing the same direction without clearing the early-season bar.
Why · SEA short-left passing (+0.39 EPA/play vs LAC, LAC's weakest zone)
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
LAC · 566 dropbacks
Justin Herbert
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.32 (359 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (207 snaps)
Pressure rate faced37%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SEA defence: pressure 34% · blitz —
SEA · 502 dropbacks
Sam Darnold
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.37 (363 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (139 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LAC defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
LAC offence vs SEA coverage
| Shell | SEA usage | LAC EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 31% (215 snaps) | +0.07 (130 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 25% (171 snaps) | +0.05 (158 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (122 snaps) | +0.05 (193 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 7% (48 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (48 snaps) | -0.36 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 7% (46 snaps) | -0.33 (46 snaps) | -0.03 |
SEA man coverage 28% · LAC vs man +0.07, vs zone -0.04
SEA offence vs LAC coverage
| Shell | LAC usage | SEA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 31% (184 snaps) | +0.09 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (151 snaps) | -0.00 (100 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 13% (77 snaps) | +0.29 (85 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (68 snaps) | +0.20 (61 snaps) | +0.07 |
LAC man coverage 22% · SEA vs man +0.23, vs zone +0.08
LAC tendencies
Play action rate27% · — vs -0.25 EPA (28 snaps)
RPO rate3% (5 snaps)
Screen rate5% (5 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 21 14%, 22 7%, 20 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.11 (49 snaps) · neutral -0.22 (29 snaps)
SEA tendencies
Play action rate35% · — vs +0.15 EPA (35 snaps)
RPO rate1% (2 snaps)
Screen rate11% (11 snaps)
Personnel11 42%, 12 28%, 21 14%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / — / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.23 (28 snaps) · neutral -0.45 (39 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:44 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2