NFL 2026 · Week 2
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Home
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 6:05am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 4:05pm ET
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
LVRating -4.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
LACRating +0.4
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
LAC offence vs LV
short-left passing
+0.11 EPA/play
LAC offence vs LV
runs off right tackle
+0.16 EPA/play
LV offence vs LAC
short-middle passing
+0.10 EPA/play
Market
Spread (LAC)
Open -7 → Now -6.5·Move +0.5
AU bestLAC -6 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best (other side)LV +6.5 @ $2.00 Dabble AU
Global bestLAC -6 @ $1.87 PlayUp
Total
Open 43.5 → Now 43.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 43.0 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best underUnder 43.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best overOver 26.5 @ $1.04 Courtside
AU best LV ML
$3.50 SportsBet
AU best LAC ML
$1.33 PointsBet (AU)
10 AU books · 32 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model LAC +7.0 · total 40.3Spread · Analysis
LAC -6
$1.87 PlayUp
Edge +1.0PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 43.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.7PASS
Chargers are favoured at home, and the model's 7.0-point margin is close to the market's -6.5, leaving just a 1.0-point gap against the best line (-6 at PlayUp, 1.87), short of the 10-point bar the model needs before week 6. The total is the primary market: the model's 40.3 projection sits under PointsBet (AU)'s 43.5 (1.90), a 2.7-point edge, also short of the threshold. Both markets are PASS, so this is analysis, not a tip. Because it's early season, the rating blends last year's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team, scaled by roster continuity; the 2026 sample is small at 1,830 plays, still mostly outweighed by last season and the market. The model's early-season record sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals.
The lean toward the under fits the matchup: on last season's charting, Justin Herbert dropped from 0.318 EPA per dropback clean to -0.531 under pressure, and Las Vegas' defence brought pressure at 27% last season. None of this clears the model's early-season bar, so the gap is simply noted.
Why · LAC short-left passing (+0.11 EPA/play vs LV)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
LV · 281 dropbacks
Kirk Cousins
2025 sample with ATL
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.09 (186 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (95 snaps)
Pressure rate faced34%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LAC defence: pressure 30% · blitz 21%
LAC · 566 dropbacks
Justin Herbert
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.32 (359 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (207 snaps)
Pressure rate faced37%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LV defence: pressure 27% · blitz 22%
LV offence vs LAC coverage
| Shell | LAC usage | LV EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 31% (184 snaps) | -0.06 (167 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (151 snaps) | -0.48 (128 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 13% (77 snaps) | -0.07 (150 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (68 snaps) | -0.07 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
LAC man coverage 22% · LV vs man -0.03, vs zone -0.23
LAC offence vs LV coverage
| Shell | LV usage | LAC EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 38% (226 snaps) | +0.05 (158 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 22% (130 snaps) | +0.07 (130 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 14% (82 snaps) | +0.05 (193 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (69 snaps) | -0.36 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
LV man coverage 20% · LAC vs man +0.07, vs zone -0.04
LV tendencies
Play action rate25% · -0.07 vs -0.20 EPA (149 snaps)
RPO rate4% (39 snaps)
Screen rate8% (49 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 35%, 13 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 22% / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.05 (198 snaps) · neutral -0.14 (232 snaps) · heavy -0.34 (30 snaps)
LAC tendencies
Play action rate23% · +0.06 vs -0.02 EPA (157 snaps)
RPO rate3% (28 snaps)
Screen rate6% (40 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 21 14%, 22 7%, 20 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 21% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (240 snaps) · neutral -0.27 (103 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:48 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2