NFL 2026 · Week 5
@
Home
NE
New England Patriots
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
LVRating +3.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
NERating -0.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NE offence vs LV
runs off right end
+0.46 EPA/play
LV offence vs NE
short-right passing
+0.23 EPA/play
NE offence vs LV
runs off left end
+0.26 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NE)
Open -3.5 → Now -3.5·Move 0.0
AU bestNE -3.5 @ $1.92 Unibet
AU best (other side)LV +4 @ $1.83 PlayUp
Global bestNE -3.5 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
Total
Open 45.0 → Now 45.0·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 44.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 45.0 @ $1.91 TABtouch
Global best overOver 44.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best NE ML
$1.53 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Lean: LV +4
Model NE -4.5 · total 37.6Spread · Analysis
LV +4
$1.83 PlayUp
Edge +8.5LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 45
$1.91 TABtouch
Edge +7.4LEAN
Las Vegas +4 at PlayUp, priced at 1.83, is a LEAN with an 8.5-point edge. The model projects Las Vegas winning by 4.5, with short-right passing showing a +0.23 EPA per play matchup advantage. Under 45 at TABtouch, priced at 1.91, is also a LEAN, with a 7.4-point edge against the model's 37.6-point total. Both signals are analysis only under the model's away-side and under rules.
Drake Maye participated fully despite a right-shoulder listing, so the existing quarterback basis remains in place. Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III missed Wednesday practice for New England. Las Vegas had Brock Bowers limited with a knee injury and Jalen Nailor absent in concussion protocol; final statuses remain pending. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · LV short-right passing (+0.23 EPA/play vs NE)
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
LV · 281 dropbacks
Kirk Cousins
2025 sample with ATL
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.09 (186 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (95 snaps)
Pressure rate faced34%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NE defence: pressure 27% · blitz 38%
NE · 540 dropbacks
Drake Maye
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.55 (368 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.24 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced32%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LV defence: pressure 27% · blitz —
LV offence vs NE coverage
| Shell | NE usage | LV EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 30% (176 snaps) | -0.06 (167 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (155 snaps) | -0.48 (128 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 26% (152 snaps) | -0.07 (150 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (55 snaps) | -0.07 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
NE man coverage 31% · LV vs man -0.03, vs zone -0.23
NE offence vs LV coverage
| Shell | LV usage | NE EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 38% (226 snaps) | +0.37 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 22% (130 snaps) | +0.21 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 14% (82 snaps) | +0.49 (147 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (69 snaps) | +0.31 (52 snaps) | +0.07 |
LV man coverage 20% · NE vs man +0.37, vs zone +0.28
LV tendencies
Play action rate24% · — vs +0.09 EPA (37 snaps)
RPO rate2% (5 snaps)
Screen rate7% (10 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 35%, 13 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / — / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.15 (58 snaps) · neutral -0.06 (29 snaps)
NE tendencies
Play action rate24% · — vs +0.08 EPA (36 snaps)
RPO rate2% (5 snaps)
Screen rate9% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 52%, 12 22%, 21 19%, 22 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 38% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.02 (40 snaps) · neutral +0.02 (32 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:03 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.
savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2