The model gives the Saints 6.6 points of margin, ahead of the market's current best AU line of -3.0 at Unibet (1.87), but that 3.6-point edge sits under the model's Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5, so this is analysis only: the model notes the gap and nothing more. The rating still blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both teams and roster continuity, and with only 3,666 plays of 2026 football banked so far, that sample remains small and mostly outweighed by last year's data and the market. On last season's charting, Tyler Shough's EPA fell from 0.197 clean to -0.702 under pressure, part of what the model sees in New Orleans' passing game.

On the total, the model's 40.5 sits well under the market's 43.5, a 2.5-point gap that is a clean pass with no case either way. The season-to-date record stands at 1-0 against the spread through week 2, a fair reflection of how early this still is.