NFL 2026 · Week 3
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 6:25am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 4:25pm ET
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
LVRating -2.1
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
NORating +2.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NO offence vs LV
short-right passing
+0.23 EPA/play
NO offence vs LV
deep-right passing
+0.19 EPA/play
LV offence vs NO
short-middle passing
+0.10 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NO)
Open -3.5 → Now -3·Move +0.5
AU bestNO -3 @ $1.87 Unibet
AU best (other side)LV +3.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global bestNO -3 @ $1.89 FanDuel
Total
Open 43.5 → Now 43.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 43.0 @ $1.83 PlayUp
AU best underUnder 43.5 @ $1.96 SportsBet
Global best overOver 41.5 @ $1.68 Courtside
AU best NO ML
$1.57 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: NO -3
Model NO +6.6 · total 40.5Spread · Analysis
NO -3
$1.87 Unibet
Edge +3.6EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Under 43.5
$1.96 SportsBet
Edge +2.5PASS
The model gives the Saints 6.6 points of margin, ahead of the market's current best AU line of -3.0 at Unibet (1.87), but that 3.6-point edge sits under the model's Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5, so this is analysis only: the model notes the gap and nothing more. The rating still blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both teams and roster continuity, and with only 3,666 plays of 2026 football banked so far, that sample remains small and mostly outweighed by last year's data and the market. On last season's charting, Tyler Shough's EPA fell from 0.197 clean to -0.702 under pressure, part of what the model sees in New Orleans' passing game.
On the total, the model's 40.5 sits well under the market's 43.5, a 2.5-point gap that is a clean pass with no case either way. The season-to-date record stands at 1-0 against the spread through week 2, a fair reflection of how early this still is.
Why · NO short-right passing (+0.23 EPA/play vs LV)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
LV · 281 dropbacks
Kirk Cousins
2025 sample with ATL
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.09 (186 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.25 (95 snaps)
Pressure rate faced34%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NO defence: pressure 28% · blitz 26%
NO · 356 dropbacks
Tyler Shough
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.20 (267 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.70 (89 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LV defence: pressure 27% · blitz 22%
LV offence vs NO coverage
| Shell | NO usage | LV EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 40% (228 snaps) | -0.06 (167 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (93 snaps) | -0.07 (150 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (86 snaps) | -0.48 (128 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (52 snaps) | -0.07 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (47 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
NO man coverage 22% · LV vs man -0.03, vs zone -0.23
NO offence vs LV coverage
| Shell | LV usage | NO EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 38% (226 snaps) | -0.11 (192 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 22% (130 snaps) | +0.06 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 14% (82 snaps) | -0.02 (100 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (69 snaps) | -0.06 (104 snaps) | +0.07 |
LV man coverage 20% · NO vs man -0.12, vs zone -0.03
LV tendencies
Play action rate25% · -0.07 vs -0.20 EPA (149 snaps)
RPO rate4% (39 snaps)
Screen rate8% (49 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 12 35%, 13 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 22% / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.05 (198 snaps) · neutral -0.14 (232 snaps) · heavy -0.34 (30 snaps)
NO tendencies
Play action rate19% · -0.18 vs -0.02 EPA (124 snaps)
RPO rate6% (64 snaps)
Screen rate6% (37 snaps)
Personnel11 75%, 12 16%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 26% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.12 (281 snaps) · neutral -0.11 (168 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 2 · last updated 24 Sept 2026, 04:11 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2