Raiders shade in at -3.5 with the model landing on a margin of 4.4, but against the AU best line of -3.0 at PlayUp that only works out to a 1.4-point edge, well short of the 10-point bar required before week 6. Miami's Malik Willis carries a hand adjustment of -1.5 points for playing behind an offence partly rated on Ewers, and the model does flag Las Vegas' short-middle passing as a plus matchup against Miami's weakest zone (+0.45 EPA/play), but that isn't enough to lift this above the threshold. The total sits similarly thin: model total of 40.3 against SportsBet's 39.5 over is just a 0.8-point edge.

Since this is weeks 1 to 5, there's no 2026 play-by-play yet - the rating is last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team (the market anchor), scaled by roster continuity. Both calls here are PASS, so this is analysis rather than a tip: the model's own record in this window last season was 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals, with 53% on totals sitting at break-even at -110.