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NFL 2026 · Week 1
Away
MIA
Miami Dolphins
@
Home
LV
Las Vegas Raiders
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sep, 6:25am AEST
Sun 13 Sep, 4:25pm ET
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Spread
LV -3.5
Total
40.5
MIA ML
$2.60
LV ML
$1.58
AU consensus as of 07/09/2026, 6:15:04 pm

Power Comparison

MIARating -6.5
Off EPA/play
+0.018
Def EPA/play
+0.137
Exp points
18.0
Offence by zone
-.24
-.15
-.12
+.14
+.07
-.16
-.11
-.12
-.02
-.24
-.00
-.01
-.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.08
-.03
-.16
+.07
+.35
+.15
-.15
+.13
-.12
+.17
-.14
-.01
+.01
LVRating -7.1
Off EPA/play
-0.034
Def EPA/play
+0.096
Exp points
22.4
Offence by zone
-.02
+.03
-.04
-.05
+.10
-.18
-.13
-.11
-.13
-.20
+.03
-.10
+.02
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.03
-.07
-.12
+.05
+.25
+.05
-.01
-.31
+.01
+.10
-.07
-.05
+.06
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

LV offence vs MIA
short-middle passing
+0.45 EPA/play
MIA offence vs LV
short-middle passing
+0.32 EPA/play
MIA offence vs LV
short-left passing
+0.19 EPA/play

Market

Spread (LV)
Open -3.5 → Now -3.5·Move 0.0
AU best
LV -3 @ $1.80 PlayUp
AU best (other side)
MIA +3.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Global best
LV -3 @ $1.80 PlayUp
Total
Open 40.5 → Now 40.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 39.5 @ $1.82 SportsBet
AU best under
Under 41.0 @ $1.87 PlayUp
Global best over
Over 39.5 @ $1.83 FanDuel
AU best MIA ML
$2.60 Unibet
AU best LV ML
$1.58 SportsBet
11 AU books · 32 total · 3 snapshots

The Call

No edge
Model LV +4.4 · total 40.3
Spread · Analysis
LV -3
$1.80 PlayUp
Edge +1.4PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 39.5
$1.82 SportsBet
Edge +0.8PASS

Raiders shade in at -3.5 with the model landing on a margin of 4.4, but against the AU best line of -3.0 at PlayUp that only works out to a 1.4-point edge, well short of the 10-point bar required before week 6. Miami's Malik Willis carries a hand adjustment of -1.5 points for playing behind an offence partly rated on Ewers, and the model does flag Las Vegas' short-middle passing as a plus matchup against Miami's weakest zone (+0.45 EPA/play), but that isn't enough to lift this above the threshold. The total sits similarly thin: model total of 40.3 against SportsBet's 39.5 over is just a 0.8-point edge.

Since this is weeks 1 to 5, there's no 2026 play-by-play yet - the rating is last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team (the market anchor), scaled by roster continuity. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Why · LV short-middle passing (+0.45 EPA/play vs MIA, MIA's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · MIA Malik Willis -1.5 pts

Published Model Results

2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT

This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.

All rated analysis (W–L–P)
CoverageSpreadsTotals
Week 66–3–17–3–0
Season to W637–34–441–32–2

Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.

Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return

One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.

SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.

Results source and coverage

Tracked Bets

Spread
0-0
Total
0-0
Units
0.0
2026 season graded betting log through Week 0 · last updated 07 Sept 2026, 06:54 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 07/09/2026V3.2