NFL 2026 · Week 4
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 7:05am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 4:05pm ET
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
MIARating -6.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
MINRating +2.1
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
MIN offence vs MIA
short-right passing
+0.15 EPA/play
MIN offence vs MIA
deep-left passing
+0.22 EPA/play
MIN offence vs MIA
short-middle passing
+0.12 EPA/play
Market
Spread (MIN)
Open -11 → Now -10.5·Move +0.5
AU bestMIN -10 @ $1.83 PlayUp
AU best (other side)MIA +11.5 @ $1.89 SportsBet
Global bestMIN -10 @ $1.83 PlayUp
Total
Open 39.0 → Now 38.5·Move -0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 38.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 39.5 @ $1.88 TABtouch
Global best overOver 38.5 @ $1.96 LowVig.ag
AU best MIA ML
$5.75 SportsBet
AU best MIN ML
$1.18 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model MIN +11.6 · total 36.1Spread · Analysis
MIN -10
$1.83 PlayUp
Edge +1.6PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 39.5
$1.88 TABtouch
Edge +3.4PASS
The model has Minnesota comfortably on top, projecting an 11.6-point margin against a market line of -10.5, but neither market clears the bar for a position. The total is primary: the model's 36.1 projection sits under the market's 38.5, and at TABtouch's best line of 39.5 (1.88) the under shows a 3.4-point edge, well short of the 10-point threshold this early in the season, so it's a pass; the spread edge is just 1.6 points against PlayUp's -10.0 at 1.83, also a pass. The rating carries hand adjustments for both quarterbacks, a -0.6 point downgrade for Malik Willis and a 0.6 point bump for Kyler Murray as the established starter over McCarthy. Minnesota's number still leans heavily on last season's form blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample of 5,586 plays still small relative to that blend.
Minnesota's short-right passing projects at +0.15 EPA/play against Miami. Model form this season sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals through three weeks. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Why · MIN short-right passing (+0.15 EPA/play vs MIA)
Hand adjustments · MIA Malik Willis -0.6 pts · MIN Kyler Murray +0.6 pts
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
MIA · 38 dropbacks
Malik Willis
only 38 2025 dropbacks (min 100)
MIN defence: pressure 34% · blitz 74%
MIN · 177 dropbacks
Kyler Murray
2025 sample with ARI
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (132 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.64 (45 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
MIA defence: pressure 27% · blitz —
MIA offence vs MIN coverage
| Shell | MIN usage | MIA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 37% (195 snaps) | -0.22 (139 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (127 snaps) | -0.08 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (63 snaps) | +0.29 (61 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 1 | 8% (40 snaps) | +0.02 (66 snaps) | +0.06 |
MIN man coverage 18% · MIA vs man +0.25, vs zone -0.07
MIN offence vs MIA coverage
| Shell | MIA usage | MIN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 35% (208 snaps) | -0.12 (147 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (143 snaps) | +0.11 (155 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 20% (120 snaps) | -0.42 (125 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (42 snaps) | -0.09 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
MIA man coverage 28% · MIN vs man -0.33, vs zone -0.08
MIA tendencies
Play action rate25% · — vs -0.07 EPA (27 snaps)
RPO rate5% (9 snaps)
Screen rate12% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 39%, 21 29%, 12 11%, 22 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / — / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedneutral -0.28 (42 snaps)
MIN tendencies
Play action rate29% · — vs -0.24 EPA (26 snaps)
RPO rate4% (7 snaps)
Screen rate12% (11 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 20%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 74% / 18%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.38 (28 snaps) · neutral -0.19 (33 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:43 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2