NFL 2026 · Week 7
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am
Power Comparison
MIARating -5.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
NYJRating +1.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NYJ offence vs MIA
short-right passing
+0.25 EPA/play
NYJ offence vs MIA
short-left passing
+0.23 EPA/play
NYJ offence vs MIA
short-middle passing
+0.26 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NYJ)
Open -5 → Now -4.5·Move +0.5
AU bestNYJ -4.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best (other side)MIA +5.5 @ $1.92 Unibet
Global bestNYJ -4.5 @ $1.95 LowVig.ag
Total
Open 39.0 → Now 39.5·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 39.5 @ $1.93 SportsBet
AU best underUnder 40.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Global best overOver 39.0 @ $1.91 MyBookie.ag
AU best MIA ML
$3.03 SportsBet
AU best NYJ ML
$1.45 Dabble AU
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots
The Call
Play: NYJ -4.5
Model NYJ +9.8 · total 43.3Spread · Model recommendation
NYJ -4.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +5.3PLAY
Total · Analysis
Over 39.5
$1.93 SportsBet
Edge +3.8LEAN
The Jets -4.5 at PointsBet (AU), priced at 1.90, qualify as PLAY with a 5.3-point model edge. Their advantage comes mainly from Miami's weaker defensive profile and favourable short-passing matchups across the field. Throws to the right and left also account for meaningful shares of the Jets' offence, giving Geno Smith routes to sustain drives without depending on a sequence of deep completions.
The available personnel could narrow that advantage. Breece Hall missed Wednesday practice, while Adonai Mitchell and Dylan Parham were limited. The Jets also had Joseph Ossai absent and Will McDonald IV limited, which could reduce the pressure on Malik Willis. Willis participated fully with his right thumb listed; Miami running back Jaylen Wright was limited. Final availability is pending, and no additional injury points are included. Over 39.5 at SportsBet is a separate LEAN with a 3.8-point gap. The spread is a model recommendation, not a recorded bet.
Why · NYJ short-right passing (+0.25 EPA/play vs MIA)
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
MIA · 38 dropbacks
Malik Willis
only 38 2025 dropbacks (min 100)
NYJ defence: pressure 24% · blitz 37%
NYJ · 503 dropbacks
Geno Smith
2025 sample with LV
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (339 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.98 (164 snaps)
Pressure rate faced33%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate5%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
MIA defence: pressure 27% · blitz 28%
MIA offence vs NYJ coverage
| Shell | NYJ usage | MIA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (160 snaps) | +0.02 (66 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (151 snaps) | -0.22 (139 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (129 snaps) | -0.08 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 7% (42 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (41 snaps) | +0.29 (61 snaps) | +0.07 |
NYJ man coverage 40% · MIA vs man +0.25, vs zone -0.07
NYJ offence vs MIA coverage
| Shell | MIA usage | NYJ EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 35% (208 snaps) | -0.31 (153 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (143 snaps) | +0.03 (204 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 20% (120 snaps) | -0.38 (112 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (42 snaps) | -0.23 (42 snaps) | +0.07 |
MIA man coverage 28% · NYJ vs man -0.18, vs zone -0.13
MIA tendencies
Play action rate25% · -0.17 vs -0.10 EPA (40 snaps)
RPO rate4% (10 snaps)
Screen rate9% (15 snaps)
Personnel11 39%, 21 29%, 12 11%, 22 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 28% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.04 (53 snaps) · neutral -0.24 (66 snaps)
NYJ tendencies
Play action rate20% · +0.24 vs +0.01 EPA (41 snaps)
RPO rate3% (12 snaps)
Screen rate8% (16 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 20%, 21 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man24% / 37% / 40%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.23 (67 snaps) · neutral -0.12 (69 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2