Power Comparison
Matchup Edges
Market
The Call
The Jets -4.5 at 1.95 with PointsBet (AU) is a PLAY recommendation, with a 5.3-point edge at the refreshed offer. That retains the opening spread at an improved price without changing the underlying projection. Short passing to either side remains the clearest model matchup for New York, providing a route to move the ball without relying entirely on deep completions. Over 38.5 at 1.88 with TABtouch is a secondary LEAN, below the Over recommendation threshold.
Malik Willis has no final designation after full practices with his thumb injury, and Miami's Jaylen Wright and Jonah Savaiinaea are also clear of game designations. New York still has questions around Breece Hall and Dylan Parham, which matter for early-down efficiency and protection. Max Mitchell and Joseph Ossai are out, with Francisco Mauigoa now on injured reserve. The recommendation uses the unchanged team-history model, while those availability concerns remain qualitative. Final inactives are pending, and the listed price is a snapshot rather than an executed bet.
Availability check
Checked 25 Oct 2026, 04:01 pm Sydney time · Final inactives pending
Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis · expected starter
Malik Willis remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Willis has no game designation after full practices with his right-thumb injury. Jaylen Wright and Jonah Savaiinaea also have no designation. Reese Taylor is out, Rob Beal Jr. doubtful and Willie Gay Jr. questionable. Miami's offensive availability improved, but the defensive absences reduce coverage and edge depth against the Jets.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24
New York Jets
Geno Smith · expected starter
Geno Smith remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Breece Hall, Kene Nwangwu and Dylan Parham are questionable. Max Mitchell and Joseph Ossai are out; Francisco Mauigoa has gone to injured reserve. Adonai Mitchell and Will McDonald IV finished with full participation. The running-back and guard questions matter to early-down efficiency, while the edge and linebacker absences reduce defensive depth.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24
Injury implications are qualitative. No additional numerical injury adjustments are applied.
Situational
| Shell | NYJ usage | MIA EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (160 snaps) | +0.02 (66 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (151 snaps) | -0.22 (139 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (129 snaps) | -0.08 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 7% (42 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (41 snaps) | +0.29 (61 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Shell | MIA usage | NYJ EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 2 | 35% (208 snaps) | -0.31 (153 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (143 snaps) | +0.03 (204 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 20% (120 snaps) | -0.38 (112 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (42 snaps) | -0.23 (42 snaps) | +0.07 |
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
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