NFL 2026 · Week 2
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SF
San Francisco 49ers
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 6:25am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 4:25pm ET
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
MIARating -4.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
SFRating +1.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
SF offence vs MIA
short-middle passing
+0.37 EPA/play
MIA offence vs SF
short-left passing
+0.21 EPA/play
SF offence vs MIA
inside runs
+0.18 EPA/play
Market
Spread (SF)
Open -13.5 → Now -13.5·Move 0.0
AU bestSF -12.5 @ $1.84 SportsBet
AU best (other side)MIA +15.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
Global bestSF -12.5 @ $1.84 SportsBet
Total
Open 45.5 → Now 45.0·Move -0.5
AU best overOver 44.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 45.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
Global best overOver 29.5 @ $1.06 Courtside
AU best SF ML
$1.12 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: Over 44.5
Model SF +10.1 · total 48.2Spread · Analysis
MIA +15.5
$1.88 Dabble AU
Edge +2.4PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 44.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +3.7EDGE NOTED / NO BET
The primary market here is the total. The model's 48.2 projection sits above the market, with the AU best line at Over 44.5 (PointsBet, 1.90) showing an edge of 3.7 points, well short of the 10-point Play bar in place for weeks 1 to 5. That's a NOTED edge only, and the model's early-season record stands at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals. The rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football in the sample so far, still small and outweighed by that blend. San Francisco's short-middle passing produced +0.37 EPA/play against Miami's defence, the matchup the model is leaning on for the total. The rating also carries hand adjustments of 1.2 points for Brock Purdy and -1.2 points for Malik Willis.
On the spread, San Francisco is favoured at -13.5 with Miami +15.5 the best AU number (Dabble AU, 1.88), and the model's 10.1-point margin projection produces only a 2.4-point edge, a clear PASS.
Why · SF short-middle passing (+0.37 EPA/play vs MIA, MIA's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · MIA Malik Willis -1.2 pts · SF Brock Purdy +1.2 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
MIA · 38 dropbacks
Malik Willis
only 38 2025 dropbacks (min 100)
SF defence: pressure 23% · blitz 22%
SF · 298 dropbacks
Brock Purdy
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (214 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.45 (84 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
MIA defence: pressure 27% · blitz 33%
MIA offence vs SF coverage
| Shell | SF usage | MIA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (201 snaps) | -0.08 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 21% (130 snaps) | +0.02 (66 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 17% (110 snaps) | -0.22 (139 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 14% (88 snaps) | +0.29 (61 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 9% (55 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
SF man coverage 25% · MIA vs man +0.25, vs zone -0.07
SF offence vs MIA coverage
| Shell | MIA usage | SF EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 35% (208 snaps) | +0.13 (152 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (143 snaps) | +0.24 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 20% (120 snaps) | +0.05 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (42 snaps) | +0.28 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
MIA man coverage 28% · SF vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.17
MIA tendencies
Play action rate27% · +0.12 vs -0.06 EPA (146 snaps)
RPO rate6% (54 snaps)
Screen rate11% (60 snaps)
Personnel11 39%, 21 29%, 12 11%, 22 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 33% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.00 (189 snaps) · neutral -0.01 (172 snaps) · heavy -0.12 (62 snaps)
SF tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.15 vs +0.17 EPA (140 snaps)
RPO rate1% (7 snaps)
Screen rate6% (37 snaps)
Personnel11 43%, 21 37%, 12 11%, 22 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man23% / 22% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.03 (322 snaps) · neutral -0.11 (61 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:49 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2