The primary market here is the total. The model's 48.2 projection sits above the market, with the AU best line at Over 44.5 (PointsBet, 1.90) showing an edge of 3.7 points, well short of the 10-point Play bar in place for weeks 1 to 5. That's a NOTED edge only, and the model's early-season record stands at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals. The rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football in the sample so far, still small and outweighed by that blend. San Francisco's short-middle passing produced +0.37 EPA/play against Miami's defence, the matchup the model is leaning on for the total. The rating also carries hand adjustments of 1.2 points for Brock Purdy and -1.2 points for Malik Willis.

On the spread, San Francisco is favoured at -13.5 with Miami +15.5 the best AU number (Dabble AU, 1.88), and the model's 10.1-point margin projection produces only a 2.4-point edge, a clear PASS.