The model gives Chicago only a slim edge, pricing the margin at 2.0 points against a market line of -4.5, with the best line at 5.5 on the Vikings via Dabble AU at 1.92, an edge of just 2.0 points, well short of the 10-point bar required before week 6, so this is a PASS. Chicago's deep-middle passing rates at +0.32 EPA/play against Minnesota's coverage, but that alone doesn't move the number far enough. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 1.2 points for Kyler Murray, reflecting his standing as the established starter over the second-year option.

With only 1,830 plays of 2026 football recorded, the rating still leans mostly on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity. On last season's charting, Murray's EPA per dropback fell from 0.263 clean to -0.644 under pressure. The model sits 1-0 against the spread to open this season.