NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
MIN
Minnesota Vikings
@
Home
CHI
Chicago Bears
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Soldier Field
Spread
CHI -4.5
Total
48.5
MIN ML
$2.85
CHI ML
$1.48
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
MINRating +2.4
Off EPA/play
+0.052
Def EPA/play
+0.008
Exp points
22.0
Offence by zone
+.23
+.01
-.27
-.14
-.05
.00
-.04
+.04
+.02
+.07
+.10
-.03
-.13
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.11
+.30
+.07
-.12
-.16
-.17
-.08
+.01
-.04
-.09
-.06
-.10
+.10
CHIRating +2.0
Off EPA/play
+0.134
Def EPA/play
+0.098
Exp points
24.0
Offence by zone
+.14
+.02
-.18
+.04
-.03
+.12
+.19
+.02
+.09
+.10
+.02
+.11
-.07
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.08
-.06
-.08
-.00
+.17
+.09
-.01
-.02
-.05
-.13
+.19
-.01
+.07
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
MIN offence vs CHI
runs off right end
+0.29 EPA/play
CHI offence vs MIN
deep-middle passing
+0.32 EPA/play
CHI offence vs MIN
deep-left passing
+0.25 EPA/play
Market
Spread (CHI)
Open -5.5 → Now -4.5·Move +1.0Moved toward model
AU best
CHI -4 @ $1.88 PlayUp
AU best (other side)
MIN +5.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Global best
CHI -4 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Total
Open 49.5 → Now 48.0·Move -1.5Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 47.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 48.5 @ $1.88 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 29.5 @ $1.03 Courtside
AU best MIN ML
$2.85 Betr
AU best CHI ML
$1.48 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model CHI +2.0 · total 46.0Spread · Analysis
MIN +5.5
$1.92 Dabble AU
Edge +2.0PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 48.5
$1.88 TABtouch
Edge +1.5PASS
The model gives Chicago only a slim edge, pricing the margin at 2.0 points against a market line of -4.5, with the best line at 5.5 on the Vikings via Dabble AU at 1.92, an edge of just 2.0 points, well short of the 10-point bar required before week 6, so this is a PASS. Chicago's deep-middle passing rates at +0.32 EPA/play against Minnesota's coverage, but that alone doesn't move the number far enough. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 1.2 points for Kyler Murray, reflecting his standing as the established starter over the second-year option.
With only 1,830 plays of 2026 football recorded, the rating still leans mostly on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity. On last season's charting, Murray's EPA per dropback fell from 0.263 clean to -0.644 under pressure. The model sits 1-0 against the spread to open this season.
Why · CHI deep-middle passing (+0.32 EPA/play vs MIN, MIN's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · MIN Kyler Murray +1.2 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
MIN · 177 dropbacks
Kyler Murray
2025 sample with ARI
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (132 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.64 (45 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CHI defence: pressure 28% · blitz 28%
CHI · 594 dropbacks
Caleb Williams
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.24 (416 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.32 (178 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)8%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
MIN defence: pressure 34% · blitz 46%
MIN offence vs CHI coverage
| Shell | CHI usage | MIN EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (183 snaps) | -0.42 (125 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (151 snaps) | -0.12 (147 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (136 snaps) | +0.11 (155 snaps) | +0.06 |
CHI man coverage 42% · MIN vs man -0.33, vs zone -0.08
CHI offence vs MIN coverage
| Shell | MIN usage | CHI EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 2 | 37% (195 snaps) | -0.02 (134 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (127 snaps) | +0.08 (214 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (63 snaps) | +0.21 (60 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 1 | 8% (40 snaps) | +0.18 (140 snaps) | +0.06 |
MIN man coverage 18% · CHI vs man +0.20, vs zone +0.09
MIN tendencies
Play action rate26% · -0.21 vs -0.14 EPA (147 snaps)
RPO rate5% (46 snaps)
Screen rate9% (51 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 20%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 46% / 18%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.11 (279 snaps) · neutral -0.05 (170 snaps) · heavy -0.07 (41 snaps)
CHI tendencies
Play action rate32% · +0.19 vs +0.08 EPA (203 snaps)
RPO rate5% (53 snaps)
Screen rate9% (59 snaps)
Personnel11 53%, 12 36%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 28% / 42%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.01 (237 snaps) · neutral -0.08 (144 snaps) · heavy -0.10 (44 snaps)
Model Form
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 1,830 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (week 1), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2