NFL 2026 · Week 5
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
MINRating +2.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
NORating -2.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NO offence vs MIN
inside runs
+0.23 EPA/play
MIN offence vs NO
runs behind right guard
+0.29 EPA/play
NO offence vs MIN
runs off left tackle
+0.24 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NO)
Open +1.5 → Now +2·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU bestNO +2.5 @ $2.00 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)MIN -2 @ $1.90 Unibet
Global bestNO +2.5 @ $2.00 Dabble AU
Total
Open 42.0 → Now 42.0·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 41.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best underUnder 42.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best overOver 41.5 @ $1.91 ReBet
AU best MIN ML
$1.77 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB availability unresolved
No rating basis
NO: Tyler Shough remains the listed starter but was limited in Wednesday's walkthrough estimate with a left-hand injury. His unrestricted availability is not established; both markets are unrated pending clarification.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
New Orleans' listed starting quarterback, Tyler Shough, was limited in Wednesday's walkthrough estimate with a left-hand injury, according to the Saints' own report. His unrestricted availability is not established, so the model cannot price the quarterback situation and both markets are unrated. Minnesota's existing hand adjustment of 0.3 points for Kyler Murray remains documented, but it does not resolve the missing rating basis for this game.
Murray averaged 0.263 EPA per dropback clean and -0.644 under pressure in the 2025 participation data, offering older matchup context only. Minnesota had Jordan Addison and Christian Darrisaw absent from Wednesday practice, with Justin Jefferson and Brian O'Neill limited. The Saints listed Alvin Kamara and Kaden Elliss as non-participants. These are practice updates, not final game statuses. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · Tyler Shough remains the listed starter but was limited in Wednesday's walkthrough estimate with a left-hand injury. His unrestricted availability is not established; both markets are unrated pending clarification.
Hand adjustments · MIN Kyler Murray +0.3 pts
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
MIN · 177 dropbacks
Kyler Murray
2025 sample with ARI
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (132 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.64 (45 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NO defence: pressure 28% · blitz 34%
NO · 0 dropbacks
Tyler Shough
Tyler Shough remains the listed starter but was limited in Wednesday's walkthrough estimate with a left-hand injury. His unrestricted availability is not established; both markets are unrated pending clarification.
MIN offence vs NO coverage
| Shell | NO usage | MIN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 40% (228 snaps) | +0.11 (155 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (93 snaps) | -0.42 (125 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (86 snaps) | -0.12 (147 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (52 snaps) | -0.09 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (47 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
NO man coverage 22% · MIN vs man -0.33, vs zone -0.08
NO offence vs MIN coverage
| Shell | MIN usage | NO EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 37% (195 snaps) | +0.06 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (127 snaps) | -0.11 (192 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (63 snaps) | -0.06 (104 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 1 | 8% (40 snaps) | -0.02 (100 snaps) | +0.06 |
MIN man coverage 18% · NO vs man -0.12, vs zone -0.03
MIN tendencies
Play action rate27% · — vs -0.22 EPA (36 snaps)
RPO rate5% (12 snaps)
Screen rate11% (14 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 20%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 74% / 18%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.16 (37 snaps) · neutral -0.20 (41 snaps)
NO tendencies
Play action rate18% · — vs -0.02 EPA (35 snaps)
RPO rate3% (9 snaps)
Screen rate4% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 75%, 12 16%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 34% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.11 (48 snaps) · neutral +0.07 (53 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:03 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2