NFL 2026 · Week 3
Away
MIN
Minnesota Vikings
@
Home
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 6:05am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 4:05pm ET
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Spread
TB +1.5
Total
42.5
MIN ML
$1.82
TB ML
$2.07
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
MINRating +3.1
Off EPA/play
+0.050
Def EPA/play
-0.006
Exp points
22.1
Offence by zone
+.18
-.03
-.32
-.19
+.03
+.06
-.05
+.04
+.03
+.06
+.06
+.02
-.07
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.11
+.20
+.03
-.12
-.23
-.14
-.03
-.06
+.05
-.09
-.05
-.07
-.05
TBRating -2.9
Off EPA/play
+0.056
Def EPA/play
+0.109
Exp points
18.8
Offence by zone
-.16
-.14
-.21
-.00
+.12
-.12
+.07
-.02
+.02
-.04
+.01
-.04
+.14
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.15
+.01
-.10
+.18
+.15
+.00
-.12
-.09
-.09
+.08
+.01
-.04
-.07
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
MIN offence vs TB
deep-left passing
+0.33 EPA/play
MIN offence vs TB
short-middle passing
+0.18 EPA/play
MIN offence vs TB
inside runs
+0.14 EPA/play
Market
Spread (TB)
Open +1.5 → Now +1.5·Move 0.0
AU best
TB +1.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
AU best (other side)
MIN -1 @ $1.87 PlayUp
Global best
TB +2 @ $1.91 MyBookie.ag
Total
Open 43.0 → Now 42.5·Move -0.5Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 43.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
Global best over
Over 27.5 @ $1.08 Courtside
AU best MIN ML
$1.82 Bet Right
AU best TB ML
$2.07 SportsBet
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model TB -3.4 · total 40.9Spread · Analysis
MIN -1
$1.87 PlayUp
Edge +1.9PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 43
$1.85 PlayUp
Edge +1.6PASS
The model gives the Vikings the edge on power rating (3.1 versus -2.9) and a model margin of -3.4, but the market's already broadly there. At the AU best line, PlayUp has the Vikings at -1.0, and the model's edge is just 1.9 points, well short of the 10-point bar that applies through week 5. That's a PASS: the model sees Minnesota's deep-left passing game causing trouble for Tampa Bay's defence (+0.33 EPA/play on that matchup), but there's no gap worth acting on. The rating includes a hand adjustment of 0.9 points for Kyler Murray as the established starter over McCarthy.
The rating still leans heavily on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample just 3,666 plays so far. On 2025 charting, Murray averaged -0.644 EPA per dropback under pressure. The early-season record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 2.
Why · MIN deep-left passing (+0.33 EPA/play vs TB)
Hand adjustments · MIN Kyler Murray +0.9 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
MIN · 177 dropbacks
Kyler Murray
2025 sample with ARI
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (132 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.64 (45 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
TB defence: pressure 35% · blitz 34%
TB · 584 dropbacks
Baker Mayfield
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.18 (431 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (153 snaps)
Pressure rate faced26%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
MIN defence: pressure 34% · blitz 46%
MIN offence vs TB coverage
| Shell | TB usage | MIN EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (203 snaps) | +0.11 (155 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (137 snaps) | -0.12 (147 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (113 snaps) | -0.42 (125 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (71 snaps) | -0.09 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
TB man coverage 29% · MIN vs man -0.33, vs zone -0.08
TB offence vs MIN coverage
| Shell | MIN usage | TB EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 2 | 37% (195 snaps) | +0.20 (153 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (127 snaps) | +0.05 (168 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (63 snaps) | -0.29 (65 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 1 | 8% (40 snaps) | +0.01 (162 snaps) | +0.06 |
MIN man coverage 18% · TB vs man -0.01, vs zone +0.06
MIN tendencies
Play action rate26% · -0.21 vs -0.14 EPA (147 snaps)
RPO rate5% (46 snaps)
Screen rate9% (51 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 20%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 46% / 18%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.11 (279 snaps) · neutral -0.05 (170 snaps) · heavy -0.07 (41 snaps)
TB tendencies
Play action rate17% · +0.31 vs -0.02 EPA (108 snaps)
RPO rate8% (85 snaps)
Screen rate10% (67 snaps)
Personnel11 70%, 12 21%, 21 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 34% / 29%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.05 (174 snaps) · neutral -0.21 (124 snaps) · heavy -0.03 (47 snaps)
Model Form
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 3,666 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (weeks 1 to 2), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2