NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
NE
New England Patriots
@
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
NERating -2.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
BUFRating +4.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NE offence vs BUF
inside runs
+0.24 EPA/play
BUF offence vs NE
short-left passing
+0.27 EPA/play
BUF offence vs NE
deep-right passing
+0.39 EPA/play
Market
Spread (BUF)
Open -6.5 → Now -6.5·Move 0.0
AU bestBUF -6.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
AU best (other side)NE +7.5 @ $1.80 Dabble AU
Global bestBUF -6.5 @ $1.87 MyBookie.ag
Total
Open 48.5 → Now 48.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 48.0 @ $1.88 TABtouch
AU best underUnder 49.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best overOver 48.0 @ $1.88 BetRivers
AU best NE ML
$3.80 SportsBet
AU best BUF ML
$1.33 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: Over 48
Model BUF +8.6 · total 52.0Spread · Analysis
BUF -6.5
$1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.1PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 48
$1.88 TABtouch
Edge +4.0EDGE NOTED / NO BET
The model has Buffalo at -8.6 on margin against a market line of -6.5 at PointsBet (AU), a 2.1-point gap that falls short of the 10-point bar this early in the season, so the spread is a pass. The total is more interesting: the model's 52.0 projection against the best line of 48 at TABtouch produces a 4.0-point edge on the Over, which the model notes but which sits under the Lean floor. Buffalo's rating still leans on last season's form blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled for roster continuity, with the 2026 sample at 5,586 plays still mostly outweighed by that anchor. The season record to date sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals.
Buffalo's short-left passing graded at +0.27 EPA/play against this Patriots defence, which supports the Over lean without pushing the spread into play. With the market unmoved at -6.5 all week, that gap stays noted rather than anything more.
Why · BUF short-left passing (+0.27 EPA/play vs NE)
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NE · 540 dropbacks
Drake Maye
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.55 (368 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.24 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced32%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
BUF defence: pressure 34% · blitz —
BUF · 506 dropbacks
Josh Allen
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.34 (379 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (127 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NE defence: pressure 27% · blitz 42%
NE offence vs BUF coverage
| Shell | BUF usage | NE EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 26% (138 snaps) | +0.21 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (119 snaps) | +0.37 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (91 snaps) | +0.49 (147 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 11% (58 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (58 snaps) | +0.31 (52 snaps) | +0.07 |
BUF man coverage 31% · NE vs man +0.37, vs zone +0.28
BUF offence vs NE coverage
| Shell | NE usage | BUF EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 30% (176 snaps) | +0.17 (148 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (155 snaps) | +0.21 (121 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 26% (152 snaps) | +0.12 (198 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (55 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
NE man coverage 31% · BUF vs man +0.13, vs zone +0.24
NE tendencies
Play action rate21% · — vs -0.04 EPA (22 snaps)
RPO rate3% (5 snaps)
Screen rate10% (11 snaps)
Personnel11 52%, 12 22%, 21 19%, 22 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 42% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.04 (33 snaps)
BUF tendencies
Play action rate31% · — vs +0.41 EPA (32 snaps)
RPO rate7% (13 snaps)
Screen rate6% (6 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 12%, 22 12%, 21 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / — / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.07 (26 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (36 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:42 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.
savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2