NFL 2026 · Week 7
Away
NE
New England Patriots
@
Kick-off
Fri 23 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Thu 22 Oct, 8:15pm ET
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am
Power Comparison
NERating +2.1
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
CHIRating +3.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NE offence vs CHI
short-right passing
+0.33 EPA/play
CHI offence vs NE
short-middle passing
+0.37 EPA/play
NE offence vs CHI
deep-right passing
+0.52 EPA/play
Market
Spread (CHI)
Open -3 → Now -3·Move 0.0
AU bestCHI -2.5 @ $1.80 PointsBet (AU)
AU best (other side)NE +3.5 @ $1.80 Dabble AU
Global bestCHI -2.5 @ $1.80 PointsBet (AU)
Total
Open 50.5 → Now 50.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 50.5 @ $1.91 TABtouch
AU best underUnder 50.5 @ $1.95 PointsBet (AU)
Global best overOver 50.5 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
AU best NE ML
$2.40 PointsBet (AU)
AU best CHI ML
$1.64 Dabble AU
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots
The Call
Lean: Under 50.5
Model CHI +4.3 · total 44.1Spread · Analysis
CHI -2.5
$1.80 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +1.8PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 50.5
$1.95 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +6.4LEAN
Under 50.5 at PointsBet (AU), priced at 1.95, is the clearer model disagreement, with a 6.4-point gap and a LEAN label. Chicago's stronger defensive profile helps produce a forecast of Chicago 24.2, New England 19.9, although both offences have useful short-passing matchups. The Patriots can work to the right; Chicago's best highlighted route is through the middle. Caleb Williams returned against Atlanta and has no final injury designation, while Drake Maye practised fully and also has no designation.
The personnel picture leaves room for that lower-scoring view to fail. New England is missing Carlton Davis III and other cornerbacks, while its offensive line is without Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker. Chicago is without Kyle Monangai and Jack Sanborn, with T.J. Edwards doubtful. Those absences have not been converted into extra points adjustments. Chicago -2.5 at PointsBet (AU) has only a 1.8-point gap and remains PASS. The Under is analysis only, with no formal recommendation.
Why · CHI short-middle passing (+0.37 EPA/play vs NE)
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NE · 540 dropbacks
Drake Maye
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.55 (368 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.24 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced32%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CHI defence: pressure 28% · blitz 42%
CHI · 594 dropbacks
Caleb Williams
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.24 (416 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.32 (178 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)8%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NE defence: pressure 27% · blitz 36%
NE offence vs CHI coverage
| Shell | CHI usage | NE EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (183 snaps) | +0.49 (147 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (151 snaps) | +0.21 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (136 snaps) | +0.37 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
CHI man coverage 42% · NE vs man +0.37, vs zone +0.28
CHI offence vs NE coverage
| Shell | NE usage | CHI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 30% (176 snaps) | +0.08 (214 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (155 snaps) | -0.02 (134 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 26% (152 snaps) | +0.18 (140 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (55 snaps) | +0.21 (60 snaps) | +0.07 |
NE man coverage 31% · CHI vs man +0.20, vs zone +0.09
NE tendencies
Play action rate23% · -0.07 vs +0.26 EPA (51 snaps)
RPO rate2% (8 snaps)
Screen rate8% (18 snaps)
Personnel11 52%, 12 22%, 21 19%, 22 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 36% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.19 (52 snaps) · neutral +0.02 (57 snaps)
CHI tendencies
Play action rate32% · +0.02 vs +0.12 EPA (75 snaps)
RPO rate5% (20 snaps)
Screen rate11% (25 snaps)
Personnel11 53%, 12 36%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 42% / 42%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.17 (35 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (57 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2