NFL 2026 · Week 3
Away
NE
New England Patriots
@
Home
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
NERating +2.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
JAXRating +3.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NE offence vs JAX
deep-right passing
+0.27 EPA/play
JAX offence vs NE
short-right passing
+0.13 EPA/play
NE offence vs JAX
runs behind left guard
+0.19 EPA/play
Market
Spread (JAX)
Open -3 → Now -3·Move 0.0
AU bestJAX -2.5 @ $1.83 PointsBet (AU)
AU best (other side)NE +3 @ $1.88 Unibet
Global bestJAX -2.5 @ $1.87 BetUS
Total
Open 45.5 → Now 45.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 45.0 @ $1.87 TABtouch
AU best underUnder 46.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best overOver 26.5 @ $1.02 Courtside
AU best JAX ML
$1.68 Unibet
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: Under 46
Model JAX +2.3 · total 40.4Spread · Analysis
NE +3
$1.88 Unibet
Edge +0.2PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 46
$1.88 PlayUp
Edge +4.6EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Jacksonville is favoured at -3.0, with the AU best line at -2.5 through PointsBet (AU) for the Jaguars or +3.0 through Unibet for New England, and the model's own margin of 2.3 points to the home side sits close enough to the market that the spread gets a PASS, an edge of just 0.2 points. The total is the primary market: the model projects 40.4 points against a market line of 46.0 at PlayUp for the Under, an edge of 4.6 points that the model notes but leaves under the Lean floor. Jacksonville's short-right passing rates a +0.13 EPA/play edge against this defence on the model's matchup numbers, feeding the lower-scoring view without pushing the model into anything stronger.
This early in the season the rating blends last year's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team, scaled by roster continuity, and the 2026 sample of 3,666 plays remains small and still mostly outweighed by that blend. The model's early-season record sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals through week 2.
Why · JAX short-right passing (+0.13 EPA/play vs NE)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NE · 540 dropbacks
Drake Maye
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.55 (368 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.24 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced32%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
JAX defence: pressure 27% · blitz 26%
JAX · 600 dropbacks
Trevor Lawrence
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (442 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (158 snaps)
Pressure rate faced26%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)10%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NE defence: pressure 27% · blitz 28%
NE offence vs JAX coverage
| Shell | JAX usage | NE EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 30% (209 snaps) | +0.37 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (183 snaps) | +0.21 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 16% (114 snaps) | +0.49 (147 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 10% (69 snaps) | +0.31 (52 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (56 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
JAX man coverage 24% · NE vs man +0.37, vs zone +0.28
JAX offence vs NE coverage
| Shell | NE usage | JAX EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 30% (176 snaps) | +0.04 (207 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (155 snaps) | +0.12 (141 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 26% (152 snaps) | +0.09 (124 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (55 snaps) | +0.09 (67 snaps) | +0.07 |
NE man coverage 31% · JAX vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.06
NE tendencies
Play action rate24% · +0.34 vs +0.29 EPA (148 snaps)
RPO rate2% (15 snaps)
Screen rate4% (26 snaps)
Personnel11 52%, 12 22%, 21 19%, 22 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 28% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (158 snaps) · neutral -0.01 (176 snaps) · heavy -0.14 (39 snaps)
JAX tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.10 vs +0.08 EPA (141 snaps)
RPO rate5% (51 snaps)
Screen rate8% (52 snaps)
Personnel11 71%, 12 22%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 26% / 24%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (196 snaps) · neutral -0.16 (107 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 2 · last updated 24 Sept 2026, 04:09 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2