← Back to NFL
NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
NO
New Orleans Saints
@
Home
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Spread
BAL -8.5
Total
46.5
NO ML
$4.30
BAL ML
$1.26
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm

Power Comparison

NORating -0.4
Off EPA/play
+0.055
Def EPA/play
+0.061
Exp points
18.1
Offence by zone
-.09
+.17
+.32
-.25
-.03
+.09
+.04
-.05
+.06
-.07
-.02
-.11
-.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.01
+.07
+.10
+.01
+.09
-.14
-.04
-.06
+.02
-.01
-.11
+.07
-.00
BALRating +5.7
Off EPA/play
+0.144
Def EPA/play
+0.040
Exp points
26.7
Offence by zone
+.52
+.02
+.02
+.08
+.04
-.15
+.25
+.05
+.01
+.05
+.18
+.14
-.04
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.14
+.13
+.16
-.09
-.15
-.05
-.06
-.01
-.04
-.07
+.03
-.16
+.10
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

NO offence vs BAL
deep-right passing
+0.48 EPA/play
BAL offence vs NO
deep-left passing
+0.51 EPA/play
NO offence vs BAL
deep-middle passing
+0.31 EPA/play

Market

Spread (BAL)
Open -8.5 → Now -8.5·Move 0.0
AU best
BAL -8 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best (other side)
NO +8.5 @ $1.90 TAB
Global best
BAL -7.5 @ $1.83 ReBet
Total
Open 47.0 → Now 46.8·Move -0.2Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 46.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best under
Under 47.0 @ $1.92 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 28.5 @ $1.03 Courtside
AU best NO ML
$4.30 Unibet
AU best BAL ML
$1.26 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots

The Call

No edge
Model BAL +8.6 · total 44.8
Spread · Analysis
BAL -8
$1.87 PlayUp
Edge +0.6PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 47
$1.92 TABtouch
Edge +1.7PASS

Baltimore is favoured at -8.5, with the market's best line at -8.0 through PlayUp (1.87) against the model's 8.6-point margin, an edge of just 0.6 points, well short of the 10-point bar the model applies before week 6. The total gets primary billing: the model's 44.8 sits under the market's number, with the best line Under 47 at TABtouch (1.92), an edge of 1.7 points, again under threshold. Both markets are a pass. The rating is still last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football banked so far.

The season record sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals through week 1. On last season's charting, Lamar Jackson produced -0.671 EPA per dropback when pressured, a number worth watching but not enough to shift the model's read on a short-priced home favourite where the numbers already broadly agree with the market.

Why · BAL deep-left passing (+0.51 EPA/play vs NO)

Situational

2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NO · 356 dropbacks
Tyler Shough
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.20 (267 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.70 (89 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
BAL defence: pressure 28% · blitz 24%
BAL · 338 dropbacks
Lamar Jackson
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.35 (229 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.67 (109 snaps)
Pressure rate faced32%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)8%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NO defence: pressure 28% · blitz 26%
NO offence vs BAL coverage
ShellBAL usageNO EPA/dbLeague
Cover 331% (217 snaps)-0.11 (192 snaps)+0.06
Cover 124% (170 snaps)-0.02 (100 snaps)+0.06
Cover 219% (131 snaps)+0.06 (161 snaps)0.00
Cover 48% (53 snaps)-0.06 (104 snaps)+0.07
Cover 06% (42 snaps)—+0.10
Cover 66% (40 snaps)-0.00 (45 snaps)-0.03
BAL man coverage 32% · NO vs man -0.12, vs zone -0.03
BAL offence vs NO coverage
ShellNO usageBAL EPA/dbLeague
Cover 340% (228 snaps)-0.22 (134 snaps)+0.06
Cover 117% (93 snaps)+0.20 (132 snaps)+0.06
Cover 215% (86 snaps)-0.21 (97 snaps)0.00
Cover 49% (52 snaps)+0.34 (54 snaps)+0.07
Cover 68% (47 snaps)—-0.03
NO man coverage 22% · BAL vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.08
NO tendencies
Play action rate19% · -0.18 vs -0.02 EPA (124 snaps)
RPO rate6% (64 snaps)
Screen rate6% (37 snaps)
Personnel11 75%, 12 16%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 26% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.12 (281 snaps) · neutral -0.11 (168 snaps)
BAL tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.26 vs -0.05 EPA (112 snaps)
RPO rate6% (53 snaps)
Screen rate7% (35 snaps)
Personnel12 35%, 11 30%, 21 19%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 24% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.19 (206 snaps) · neutral +0.04 (129 snaps) · heavy +0.03 (43 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:46 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2