NFL 2026 · Week 2
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
NORating -0.4
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
BALRating +5.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NO offence vs BAL
deep-right passing
+0.48 EPA/play
BAL offence vs NO
deep-left passing
+0.51 EPA/play
NO offence vs BAL
deep-middle passing
+0.31 EPA/play
Market
Spread (BAL)
Open -8.5 → Now -8.5·Move 0.0
AU bestBAL -8 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best (other side)NO +8.5 @ $1.90 TAB
Global bestBAL -7.5 @ $1.83 ReBet
Total
Open 47.0 → Now 46.8·Move -0.2Moved toward model
AU best overOver 46.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best underUnder 47.0 @ $1.92 TABtouch
Global best overOver 28.5 @ $1.03 Courtside
AU best NO ML
$4.30 Unibet
AU best BAL ML
$1.26 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model BAL +8.6 · total 44.8Spread · Analysis
BAL -8
$1.87 PlayUp
Edge +0.6PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 47
$1.92 TABtouch
Edge +1.7PASS
Baltimore is favoured at -8.5, with the market's best line at -8.0 through PlayUp (1.87) against the model's 8.6-point margin, an edge of just 0.6 points, well short of the 10-point bar the model applies before week 6. The total gets primary billing: the model's 44.8 sits under the market's number, with the best line Under 47 at TABtouch (1.92), an edge of 1.7 points, again under threshold. Both markets are a pass. The rating is still last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football banked so far.
The season record sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals through week 1. On last season's charting, Lamar Jackson produced -0.671 EPA per dropback when pressured, a number worth watching but not enough to shift the model's read on a short-priced home favourite where the numbers already broadly agree with the market.
Why · BAL deep-left passing (+0.51 EPA/play vs NO)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NO · 356 dropbacks
Tyler Shough
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.20 (267 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.70 (89 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
BAL defence: pressure 28% · blitz 24%
BAL · 338 dropbacks
Lamar Jackson
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.35 (229 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.67 (109 snaps)
Pressure rate faced32%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)8%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NO defence: pressure 28% · blitz 26%
NO offence vs BAL coverage
| Shell | BAL usage | NO EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 31% (217 snaps) | -0.11 (192 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (170 snaps) | -0.02 (100 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 19% (131 snaps) | +0.06 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (53 snaps) | -0.06 (104 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 6% (42 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
| Cover 6 | 6% (40 snaps) | -0.00 (45 snaps) | -0.03 |
BAL man coverage 32% · NO vs man -0.12, vs zone -0.03
BAL offence vs NO coverage
| Shell | NO usage | BAL EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 40% (228 snaps) | -0.22 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (93 snaps) | +0.20 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (86 snaps) | -0.21 (97 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (52 snaps) | +0.34 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (47 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
NO man coverage 22% · BAL vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.08
NO tendencies
Play action rate19% · -0.18 vs -0.02 EPA (124 snaps)
RPO rate6% (64 snaps)
Screen rate6% (37 snaps)
Personnel11 75%, 12 16%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 26% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.12 (281 snaps) · neutral -0.11 (168 snaps)
BAL tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.26 vs -0.05 EPA (112 snaps)
RPO rate6% (53 snaps)
Screen rate7% (35 snaps)
Personnel12 35%, 11 30%, 21 19%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 24% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.19 (206 snaps) · neutral +0.04 (129 snaps) · heavy +0.03 (43 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:46 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2