Detroit is favoured at -6.5 with PointsBet (AU) at 1.83, and the model's own margin of 7.5 sits just above that number, leaving only a 1.0-point edge on the spread, so this one is a pass on the side. The primary signal is the total: the model projects 45.1 against a market total of 50.5 (best price with PointsBet AU at 1.90), a 4.4-point edge that has the model leaning Under. That gap reflects Detroit's offensive rating advantage and New Orleans' modest expected output, even though the Saints do have a couple of favourable passing matchups on the ledger, including deep-right work against Detroit's defence.

There's no 2026 play-by-play in the bank yet, so this rating is last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of both teams (the market anchor) and scaled for how much of each roster carried over (continuity). Weeks 1 to 5 need a 10-point edge to reach Play tier, so at 4.4 points the Under is a Lean, not a stronger call, and it sits short of that bar. For context, the same approach went 41-37 on totals in weeks 1 to 5 last season, which is break-even at these prices.