NFL 2026 · Week 6
Kick-off
Mon 19 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 15/10/2026, 11:39:22 am
Power Comparison
NORating -5.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
NYGRating -1.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NO offence vs NYG
inside runs
+0.49 EPA/play
NYG offence vs NO
deep-left passing
+0.46 EPA/play
NYG offence vs NO
runs off left end
+0.37 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NYG)
Open +0.5 → Now +1·Move +0.5
AU bestNYG +2 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)NO -0.5 @ $1.92 Unibet
Global bestNYG +2 @ $1.90 TAB
Total
Open 45.5 → Now 45.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 45.5 @ $1.91 TABtouch
AU best underUnder 45.5 @ $1.95 PointsBet (AU)
Global best overOver 45.5 @ $1.92 BetRivers
AU best NO ML
$1.90 Unibet
10 AU books · 33 total · 7 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
NYG: Jameis Winston remains the starter. The existing model has no supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment. Its mixed-quarterback team history is not a Winston-specific projection; both market ratings are withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATEDTotal · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATEDGiants quarterback Jameis Winston remains the starter, but the existing model has no rating basis for a supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment. Both markets are therefore UNRATED. This is a limitation of the quarterback valuation, not an assertion that New York has failed to name its starter. Tyler Shough participated fully Wednesday with his left-hand injury listed, clearing the Saints' earlier availability hold.
New Orleans has a useful inside-running matchup in the historical team data. Alvin Kamara's fitness matters to that route, however, and he was limited Wednesday. Chris Olave missed practice through illness, which could reduce the passing support around Shough if it continues. New York's deeper passing opportunities offer a possible response, but protection is a concern with Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor absent from practice. The Giants also had Abdul Carter, Colton Hood and Tyler Nubin sidelined. Those reports are provisional. The matchup has ways to open up in either direction, but mixed-quarterback team history cannot price Winston's contribution as a starter-specific projection.
Why · Jameis Winston remains the starter. The existing model has no supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment. Its mixed-quarterback team history is not a Winston-specific projection; both market ratings are withheld.
Situational
2026 through week 5 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NO · 356 dropbacks
Tyler Shough
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.20 (267 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.70 (89 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NYG defence: pressure 30% · blitz 40%
NYG · 0 dropbacks
Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston remains the starter. The existing model has no supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment. Its mixed-quarterback team history is not a Winston-specific projection; both market ratings are withheld.
NO offence vs NYG coverage
| Shell | NYG usage | NO EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (191 snaps) | -0.02 (100 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | -0.11 (192 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (94 snaps) | +0.06 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 15% (92 snaps) | -0.06 (104 snaps) | +0.07 |
NYG man coverage 40% · NO vs man -0.12, vs zone -0.03
NYG offence vs NO coverage
| Shell | NO usage | NYG EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 40% (228 snaps) | +0.38 (172 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (93 snaps) | +0.06 (171 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (86 snaps) | -0.23 (133 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (52 snaps) | -0.08 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (47 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
NO man coverage 22% · NYG vs man +0.00, vs zone +0.06
NO tendencies
Play action rate16% · — vs -0.08 EPA (36 snaps)
RPO rate3% (10 snaps)
Screen rate3% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 75%, 12 16%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 35% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.10 (62 snaps) · neutral +0.07 (63 snaps)
NYG tendencies
Play action rate23% · +0.03 vs +0.12 EPA (43 snaps)
RPO rate2% (5 snaps)
Screen rate6% (11 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 40% / 40%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.04 (49 snaps) · neutral -0.01 (45 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 5 · last updated 15 Oct 2026, 11:55 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 9,277 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 5. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 5; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 15/10/2026V3.2