Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
HOU offence vs NYG
short-middle passing
+0.50 EPA/play
HOU offence vs NYG
short-right passing
+0.34 EPA/play
NYG offence vs HOU
deep-left passing
+0.60 EPA/play
Market
Spread (HOU)
Open -9.5 → Now -10.5·Move -1.0Moved toward model
AU best
HOU -10 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)
NYG +10.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
HOU -10 @ $1.91 theScore Bet
Total
Open 43.0 → Now 42.5·Move -0.5
AU best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.91 TABtouch
AU best under
Under 44.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Global best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.96 LowVig.ag
AU best NYG ML
$4.90 SportsBet
AU best HOU ML
$1.22 Dabble AU
10 AU books · 33 total · 23 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
NYG: The Giants have named J.J. McCarthy to start Week 7 in place of Jameis Winston. The existing model has no supported McCarthy adjustment; its mixed-quarterback team history is not a McCarthy-specific forecast. Both market ratings are withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
The Giants' starting quarterback is J.J. McCarthy, but the model cannot price that change with a supported adjustment, leaving both markets UNRATED. The dated team announcement continues to supersede the generic team listing Jameis Winston. No margin, total or selection is published, and McCarthy's confirmed role does not make the mixed-quarterback team sample a reliable standalone forecast for him.
The supporting cast has also changed since the opening preview. New York activated Paulson Adebo and placed Tremaine Edmunds on injured reserve, while Greg Newsome II is out and several protection and secondary names remain questionable. Andrew Thomas has no designation, which is better news for the left side. Houston is missing Reed Blankenship, Jalen Pitre, Blake Fisher and David Montgomery, with Tank Dell questionable. Those losses affect coverage, depth and receiving options around C.J. Stroud. Final inactives remain pending, and none of these reports supplies the missing numerical quarterback adjustment.
Why · The Giants have named J.J. McCarthy to start Week 7 in place of Jameis Winston. The existing model has no supported McCarthy adjustment; its mixed-quarterback team history is not a McCarthy-specific forecast. Both market ratings are withheld.
Availability check
Checked 25 Oct 2026, 04:01 pm Sydney time · Final inactives pending
New York Giants
J.J. McCarthy · confirmed starter
The Giants have named J.J. McCarthy to start Week 7 in place of Jameis Winston. The existing model has no supported McCarthy adjustment; its mixed-quarterback team history is not a McCarthy-specific forecast. Both market ratings are withheld.
The Giants reaffirmed McCarthy as their starter, with Winston the backup. Paulson Adebo was activated Saturday; Tremaine Edmunds went to injured reserve. Greg Newsome II is out; Theo Johnson is doubtful. Jermaine Eluemunor, Marcus Mbow, Jevon Holland and Tyler Nubin are questionable. Andrew Thomas has no designation. Protection and secondary depth remain concerns even with Adebo back on the active roster.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24
C.J. Stroud remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Reed Blankenship, Jalen Pitre, Blake Fisher and David Montgomery are out. Tank Dell is questionable despite full practices. Azeez Al-Shaair, Trent Brown and Dalton Schultz progressed to full participation without a designation. Houston is missing two safety options and tackle depth; Dell's availability affects receiving rotation and Montgomery's absence narrows the backfield.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-23
Injury implications are qualitative. No additional numerical injury adjustments are applied.
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NYG · 0 dropbacks
J.J. McCarthy
The Giants have named J.J. McCarthy to start Week 7 in place of Jameis Winston. The existing model has no supported McCarthy adjustment; its mixed-quarterback team history is not a McCarthy-specific forecast. Both market ratings are withheld.
HOU · 446 dropbacks
C.J. Stroud
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.30 (317 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.43 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced29%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NYG defence: pressure 30% · blitz 42%
NYG offence vs HOU coverage
Shell
HOU usage
NYG EPA/db
League
Cover 1
29% (178 snaps)
+0.06 (171 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 2
23% (143 snaps)
-0.23 (133 snaps)
0.00
Cover 3
22% (138 snaps)
+0.38 (172 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 4
12% (76 snaps)
-0.08 (59 snaps)
+0.07
Cover 6
8% (48 snaps)
—
-0.03
HOU man coverage 32% · NYG vs man +0.00, vs zone +0.06
HOU offence vs NYG coverage
Shell
NYG usage
HOU EPA/db
League
Cover 1
31% (191 snaps)
+0.36 (132 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 3
26% (160 snaps)
+0.17 (164 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 2
15% (94 snaps)
-0.02 (162 snaps)
0.00
Cover 4
15% (92 snaps)
+0.16 (59 snaps)
+0.07
NYG man coverage 40% · HOU vs man -0.02, vs zone +0.10
NYG tendencies
Play action rate20% · +0.05 vs +0.06 EPA (47 snaps)
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)
Coverage
Spreads
Totals
Week 6
6–3–1
7–3–0
Season to W6
37–34–4
41–32–2
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 25 Oct 2026, 05:51 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.