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NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
NYG
New York Giants
@
Home
LA
Los Angeles Rams
Kick-off
Tue 22 Sep, 10:15am AEST
Mon 21 Sep, 8:15pm ET
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Spread
LA -7
Total
47.5
NYG ML
$4.10
LA ML
$1.30
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm

Power Comparison

NYGRating -0.2
Off EPA/play
+0.114
Def EPA/play
+0.117
Exp points
22.9
Offence by zone
-.07
-.04
+.05
+.10
+.09
+.01
-.02
+.12
+.12
+.04
-.04
-.04
-.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.01
+.01
-.11
+.10
+.03
-.03
+.12
-.00
+.02
+.07
+.09
+.08
+.06
LARating +2.8
Off EPA/play
+0.119
Def EPA/play
+0.068
Exp points
27.9
Offence by zone
-.18
+.39
+.11
+.06
-.08
+.08
-.11
+.09
+.04
+.07
+.00
-.08
+.06
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.06
+.13
-.12
+.16
-.13
-.07
+.00
-.01
-.01
-.02
-.07
-.01
+.01
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

NYG offence vs LA
short-left passing
+0.26 EPA/play
LA offence vs NYG
deep-middle passing
+0.40 EPA/play
LA offence vs NYG
short-left passing
+0.16 EPA/play

Market

Spread (LA)
Open -7 → Now -7·Move 0.0
AU best
LA -7 @ $1.90 Unibet
AU best (other side)
NYG +7.5 @ $1.84 SportsBet
Global best
LA -7 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
Total
Open 48.5 → Now 48.0·Move -0.5
AU best over
Over 47.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 48.0 @ $1.92 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 45.5 @ $1.65 Courtside
AU best NYG ML
$4.10 SportsBet
AU best LA ML
$1.30 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots

The Call

No edge
Model LA +5.0 · total 50.8
Spread · Analysis
NYG +7.5
$1.84 SportsBet
Edge +2.0PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 47.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +3.3PASS

Both markets sit under the model's threshold this week, so this is analysis rather than a tip. The primary market is the total: PointsBet (AU) has it at 47.5, and the model's 50.8 projection leaves an edge of 3.3 points, short of the 10-point bar the model requires in these early weeks. On the spread, SportsBet's 7.5 for the Giants shows an edge of just 2.0 against the model's 5.0 margin, again below the bar. Early season, the rating is last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, and the 2026 sample is still small at 1,830 plays, so it remains mostly outweighed by last season and the market. The model's record this season sits at 1-0 against the spread.

On last season's charting, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford averaged 0.408 EPA per dropback when clean but dropped to -0.334 under pressure. Both edges here sit below the model's threshold, so there's nothing to note beyond that gap.

Why · LA deep-middle passing (+0.40 EPA/play vs NYG)

Situational

2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NYG · 375 dropbacks
Jaxson Dart
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.21 (263 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.57 (112 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LA defence: pressure 32% · blitz 20%
LA · 617 dropbacks
Matthew Stafford
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.41 (468 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.33 (149 snaps)
Pressure rate faced24%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NYG defence: pressure 30% · blitz 30%
NYG offence vs LA coverage
ShellLA usageNYG EPA/dbLeague
Cover 328% (184 snaps)+0.38 (172 snaps)+0.06
Cover 224% (160 snaps)-0.23 (133 snaps)0.00
Cover 118% (116 snaps)+0.06 (171 snaps)+0.06
Cover 411% (75 snaps)-0.08 (59 snaps)+0.07
Cover 68% (52 snaps)—-0.03
LA man coverage 26% · NYG vs man +0.00, vs zone +0.06
LA offence vs NYG coverage
ShellNYG usageLA EPA/dbLeague
Cover 131% (191 snaps)+0.09 (149 snaps)+0.06
Cover 326% (160 snaps)+0.26 (166 snaps)+0.06
Cover 215% (94 snaps)+0.24 (114 snaps)0.00
Cover 415% (92 snaps)+0.34 (65 snaps)+0.07
NYG man coverage 40% · LA vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.28
NYG tendencies
Play action rate23% · -0.01 vs +0.06 EPA (143 snaps)
RPO rate12% (130 snaps)
Screen rate7% (43 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 30% / 40%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.15 (222 snaps) · neutral +0.13 (151 snaps) · heavy -0.02 (35 snaps)
LA tendencies
Play action rate35% · +0.31 vs +0.17 EPA (216 snaps)
RPO rate1% (5 snaps)
Screen rate7% (45 snaps)
Personnel11 60%, 13 31%, 12 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 20% / 26%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.08 (265 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (115 snaps) · heavy +0.12 (25 snaps)

Model Form

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 1,830 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (week 1), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.

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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2