NFL 2026 · Week 2
Kick-off
Tue 22 Sep, 10:15am AEST
Mon 21 Sep, 8:15pm ET
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
NYGRating -0.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
LARating +2.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NYG offence vs LA
short-left passing
+0.26 EPA/play
LA offence vs NYG
deep-middle passing
+0.40 EPA/play
LA offence vs NYG
short-left passing
+0.16 EPA/play
Market
Spread (LA)
Open -7 → Now -7·Move 0.0
AU bestLA -7 @ $1.90 Unibet
AU best (other side)NYG +7.5 @ $1.84 SportsBet
Global bestLA -7 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
Total
Open 48.5 → Now 48.0·Move -0.5
AU best overOver 47.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 48.0 @ $1.92 TABtouch
Global best overOver 45.5 @ $1.65 Courtside
AU best NYG ML
$4.10 SportsBet
AU best LA ML
$1.30 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model LA +5.0 · total 50.8Spread · Analysis
NYG +7.5
$1.84 SportsBet
Edge +2.0PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 47.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +3.3PASS
Both markets sit under the model's threshold this week, so this is analysis rather than a tip. The primary market is the total: PointsBet (AU) has it at 47.5, and the model's 50.8 projection leaves an edge of 3.3 points, short of the 10-point bar the model requires in these early weeks. On the spread, SportsBet's 7.5 for the Giants shows an edge of just 2.0 against the model's 5.0 margin, again below the bar. Early season, the rating is last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, and the 2026 sample is still small at 1,830 plays, so it remains mostly outweighed by last season and the market. The model's record this season sits at 1-0 against the spread.
On last season's charting, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford averaged 0.408 EPA per dropback when clean but dropped to -0.334 under pressure. Both edges here sit below the model's threshold, so there's nothing to note beyond that gap.
Why · LA deep-middle passing (+0.40 EPA/play vs NYG)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NYG · 375 dropbacks
Jaxson Dart
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.21 (263 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.57 (112 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LA defence: pressure 32% · blitz 20%
LA · 617 dropbacks
Matthew Stafford
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.41 (468 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.33 (149 snaps)
Pressure rate faced24%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NYG defence: pressure 30% · blitz 30%
NYG offence vs LA coverage
| Shell | LA usage | NYG EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 28% (184 snaps) | +0.38 (172 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (160 snaps) | -0.23 (133 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (116 snaps) | +0.06 (171 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (75 snaps) | -0.08 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (52 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
LA man coverage 26% · NYG vs man +0.00, vs zone +0.06
LA offence vs NYG coverage
| Shell | NYG usage | LA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (191 snaps) | +0.09 (149 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | +0.26 (166 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (94 snaps) | +0.24 (114 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 15% (92 snaps) | +0.34 (65 snaps) | +0.07 |
NYG man coverage 40% · LA vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.28
NYG tendencies
Play action rate23% · -0.01 vs +0.06 EPA (143 snaps)
RPO rate12% (130 snaps)
Screen rate7% (43 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 30% / 40%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.15 (222 snaps) · neutral +0.13 (151 snaps) · heavy -0.02 (35 snaps)
LA tendencies
Play action rate35% · +0.31 vs +0.17 EPA (216 snaps)
RPO rate1% (5 snaps)
Screen rate7% (45 snaps)
Personnel11 60%, 13 31%, 12 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 20% / 26%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.08 (265 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (115 snaps) · heavy +0.12 (25 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:50 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2