NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
NYG
New York Giants
@
Home
WAS
Washington Commanders
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Northwest Stadium
Spread
WAS -3.5
Total
42.5
NYG ML
$2.65
WAS ML
$1.53
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
NYGRating -1.5
Off EPA/play
+0.007
Def EPA/play
+0.034
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.32
-.21
-.22
-.09
-.13
-.06
+.14
-.11
-.03
-.14
-.04
+.05
-.14
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.08
+.00
-.32
-.51
+.23
+.12
+.08
-.11
+.08
-.02
+.09
+.09
+.06
WASRating -3.7
Off EPA/play
-0.007
Def EPA/play
+0.060
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.20
-.06
-.50
-.09
-.07
-.10
+.05
+.01
-.09
-.07
+.06
-.10
-.08
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.04
+.09
+.46
-.16
+.09
-.14
-.18
+.11
+.12
-.04
+.05
+.04
+.01
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NYG offence vs WAS
deep-left passing
+0.28 EPA/play
NYG offence vs WAS
deep-right passing
+0.24 EPA/play
WAS offence vs NYG
short-middle passing
+0.16 EPA/play
Market
Spread (WAS)
Open -3.5 → Now -3.5·Move 0.0
AU best
WAS -3.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best (other side)
NYG +4 @ $1.87 PlayUp
Global best
WAS -3.5 @ $1.95 LowVig.ag
Total
Open 43.5 → Now 42.5·Move -1.0Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 41.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 43.0 @ $1.91 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 41.5 @ $1.91 BetUS
AU best NYG ML
$2.65 SportsBet
AU best WAS ML
$1.53 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB availability unresolved
No rating basis
NYG: Confirmed starter: Jameis Winston. Jaxson Dart remains on injured reserve. The model has no supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment; both markets are unrated. WAS: Jayden Daniels returned to full practice after his elbow injury and is expected to start if the week goes well. His return remains conditional, and no supported adjustment covers a restricted return in the elbow brace; both markets are unrated.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
The Giants' confirmed starting quarterback is Jameis Winston, with Jaxson Dart on injured reserve, but the model has no supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment and cannot price that change. Washington's Jayden Daniels returned to full practice in an elbow brace and is expected to start if the week goes well. That return remains conditional, and a restricted return has no supported adjustment. Both markets are unrated for these distinct reasons.
The Giants' deep-left passing matchup shows +0.28 EPA per play as team-level background, not a Winston projection. Malik Nabers and Andrew Thomas missed Wednesday practice for New York; Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota were absent for Washington. Those reports do not establish final game statuses. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · Confirmed starter: Jameis Winston. Jaxson Dart remains on injured reserve. The model has no supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment; both markets are unrated. Jayden Daniels returned to full practice after his elbow injury and is expected to start if the week goes well. His return remains conditional, and no supported adjustment covers a restricted return in the elbow brace; both markets are unrated.
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
NYG · 0 dropbacks
Jameis Winston
Confirmed starter: Jameis Winston. Jaxson Dart remains on injured reserve. The model has no supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment; both markets are unrated.
WAS · 0 dropbacks
Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels returned to full practice after his elbow injury and is expected to start if the week goes well. His return remains conditional, and no supported adjustment covers a restricted return in the elbow brace; both markets are unrated.
NYG offence vs WAS coverage
| Shell | WAS usage | NYG EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 25% (152 snaps) | +0.06 (171 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (147 snaps) | +0.38 (172 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 19% (120 snaps) | -0.23 (133 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (96 snaps) | -0.08 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
WAS man coverage 31% · NYG vs man +0.00, vs zone +0.06
WAS offence vs NYG coverage
| Shell | NYG usage | WAS EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (191 snaps) | -0.18 (156 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | +0.08 (170 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (94 snaps) | +0.12 (103 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 15% (92 snaps) | +0.21 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
NYG man coverage 40% · WAS vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.09
NYG tendencies
Play action rate23% · — vs -0.04 EPA (29 snaps)
RPO rate1% (2 snaps)
Screen rate4% (5 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 34% / 40%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.09 (33 snaps) · neutral -0.01 (39 snaps)
WAS tendencies
Play action rate22% · — vs +0.01 EPA (35 snaps)
RPO rate6% (15 snaps)
Screen rate5% (8 snaps)
Personnel11 59%, 12 30%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 47% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.18 (29 snaps) · neutral -0.10 (45 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:04 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2