Chicago's quarterback room is the whole story here. The Bears have not named a Week 4 starter: Caleb Williams remained sidelined by his hamstring injury as of the 30 September update, Tyson Bagent had only just cleared concussion protocol, and Ben Johnson was still set to work through the week before choosing between Williams, Bagent and Case Keenum. With no starter confirmed, the model has no rating basis for this game, and the published margin and total are both unrated as a result. The rating does carry a hand adjustment of 0.4 points for Geno Smith as the passing upgrade over Fields and Cook, but that can't be weighed against a Bears offence with no named caller.

Normally this early in the season the model blends last year's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team, scaled by roster continuity, but that mechanism needs a quarterback to anchor to. The thing worth watching is simply who Ben Johnson names as Chicago's starter.