NFL 2026 · Week 3
Away
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
@
Kick-off
Tue 29 Sep, 10:15am AEST
Mon 28 Sep, 8:15pm ET
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
PHIRating -0.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
CHIRating +0.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
PHI offence vs CHI
short-middle passing
+0.39 EPA/play
CHI offence vs PHI
runs behind right guard
+0.30 EPA/play
CHI offence vs PHI
runs off left end
+0.38 EPA/play
Market
Spread (CHI)
Open +3 → Now +5·Move +2.0
AU bestCHI +5.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)PHI -4.5 @ $1.90 TAB
Global bestCHI +5.5 @ $1.91 Hard Rock Bet
Total
Open 44.0 → Now 41.0·Move -3.0
AU best overOver 41.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
AU best underUnder 41.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best overOver 40.5 @ $1.83 theScore Bet
AU best PHI ML
$1.46 Unibet
AU best CHI ML
$2.92 SportsBet
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
QB situation unresolved - no rating basis
No rating basis
CHI: Chicago quarterback situation is unresolved with Caleb Williams injured, Tyson Bagent in protocol, and Case Keenum possible.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
Chicago's quarterback situation is the story here, not the number on the board. Caleb Williams is injured, Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol, and Case Keenum is the possible fill-in with no starter yet confirmed. The model has a margin of 3.3 and a total of 47.9 sitting in the background as pure context, but without knowing who lines up under centre for Chicago the model has no rating basis for this game and cannot price either side.
Early in the season the rating would normally blend last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scale that by roster continuity, but that mechanism cannot function here while the starter is unnamed. Philadelphia's profile matters far less than the practice-field news out of Chicago this week. The situation to watch is the confirmed starter availability, once that's confirmed the model can generate a proper rating for this game.
Why · QB situation unresolved - no rating basis (CHI)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
PHI · 486 dropbacks
Jalen Hurts
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.33 (351 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.66 (135 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CHI defence: pressure 28% · blitz 28%
CHI · 0 dropbacks
Starter not named
QB situation unresolved: no starter to profile
PHI offence vs CHI coverage
| Shell | CHI usage | PHI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (183 snaps) | +0.11 (127 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (151 snaps) | -0.05 (109 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (136 snaps) | +0.23 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
CHI man coverage 42% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
CHI offence vs PHI coverage
| Shell | PHI usage | CHI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (221 snaps) | +0.18 (140 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (140 snaps) | +0.08 (214 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 18% (114 snaps) | -0.02 (134 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (43 snaps) | +0.21 (60 snaps) | +0.07 |
PHI man coverage 44% · CHI vs man +0.20, vs zone +0.09
PHI tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.08 vs +0.07 EPA (128 snaps)
RPO rate6% (63 snaps)
Screen rate4% (25 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 19% / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.10 (296 snaps) · neutral -0.10 (126 snaps)
CHI tendencies
Play action rate32% · +0.19 vs +0.08 EPA (203 snaps)
RPO rate5% (53 snaps)
Screen rate9% (59 snaps)
Personnel11 53%, 12 36%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 28% / 42%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.01 (237 snaps) · neutral -0.08 (144 snaps) · heavy -0.10 (44 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 2 · last updated 24 Sept 2026, 04:12 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2