NFL 2026 · Week 3
Away
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
@
Home
CHI
Chicago Bears
Kick-off
Tue 29 Sep, 10:15am AEST
Mon 28 Sep, 8:15pm ET
Venue
Soldier Field
Spread
CHI +5
Total
41.5
PHI ML
$1.46
CHI ML
$2.92
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
PHIRating -0.2
Off EPA/play
+0.059
Def EPA/play
+0.063
Exp points
22.3
Offence by zone
-.14
+.07
+.08
-.05
+.18
-.10
-.04
-.09
+.12
+.07
+.04
.00
-.10
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.07
+.14
-.11
-.09
-.14
-.00
+.09
-.02
-.01
+.09
+.00
+.10
-.09
CHIRating +0.9
Off EPA/play
+0.123
Def EPA/play
+0.106
Exp points
25.6
Offence by zone
+.16
-.11
-.16
+.01
+.04
+.12
+.29
-.03
+.11
+.12
+.00
+.20
-.16
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.11
-.18
-.05
+.02
+.21
+.12
-.04
-.01
+.01
-.12
+.13
+.02
+.10
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
PHI offence vs CHI
short-middle passing
+0.39 EPA/play
CHI offence vs PHI
runs behind right guard
+0.30 EPA/play
CHI offence vs PHI
runs off left end
+0.38 EPA/play
Market
Spread (CHI)
Open +3 → Now +5·Move +2.0
AU best
CHI +5.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
PHI -4.5 @ $1.90 TAB
Global best
CHI +5.5 @ $1.91 Hard Rock Bet
Total
Open 44.0 → Now 41.0·Move -3.0
AU best over
Over 41.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 41.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best over
Over 40.5 @ $1.83 theScore Bet
AU best PHI ML
$1.46 Unibet
AU best CHI ML
$2.92 SportsBet
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
QB situation unresolved - no rating basis
No rating basis
CHI: 2026-09-24: Chicago quarterback situation is unresolved with Caleb Williams injured, Tyson Bagent in protocol, and Case Keenum possible. Keep Philadelphia-Chicago unrated until starter status and adjustment are approved.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
Chicago's quarterback situation is the story here, not the number on the board. Caleb Williams is injured, Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol, and Case Keenum is the possible fill-in with no starter yet confirmed. The model has a margin of 3.3 and a total of 47.9 sitting in the background as pure context, but without knowing who lines up under centre for Chicago the model has no rating basis for this game and cannot price either side.
Early in the season the rating would normally blend last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scale that by roster continuity, but that mechanism cannot function here while the starter is unnamed. Philadelphia's profile matters far less than the practice-field news out of Chicago this week. The situation to watch is the official starter announcement, once that's confirmed the model can generate a proper rating for this game.
Why · QB situation unresolved - no rating basis (CHI)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
PHI · 486 dropbacks
Jalen Hurts
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.33 (351 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.66 (135 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CHI defence: pressure 28% · blitz 28%
CHI · 0 dropbacks
Starter not named
QB situation unresolved: no starter to profile
PHI offence vs CHI coverage
| Shell | CHI usage | PHI EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (183 snaps) | +0.11 (127 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (151 snaps) | -0.05 (109 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (136 snaps) | +0.23 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
CHI man coverage 42% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
CHI offence vs PHI coverage
| Shell | PHI usage | CHI EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (221 snaps) | +0.18 (140 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (140 snaps) | +0.08 (214 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 18% (114 snaps) | -0.02 (134 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (43 snaps) | +0.21 (60 snaps) | +0.07 |
PHI man coverage 44% · CHI vs man +0.20, vs zone +0.09
PHI tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.08 vs +0.07 EPA (128 snaps)
RPO rate6% (63 snaps)
Screen rate4% (25 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 19% / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.10 (296 snaps) · neutral -0.10 (126 snaps)
CHI tendencies
Play action rate32% · +0.19 vs +0.08 EPA (203 snaps)
RPO rate5% (53 snaps)
Screen rate9% (59 snaps)
Personnel11 53%, 12 36%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 28% / 42%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.01 (237 snaps) · neutral -0.08 (144 snaps) · heavy -0.10 (44 snaps)
Model Form
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 3,666 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (weeks 1 to 2), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2