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NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
@
Designated home
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 12:30am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 9:30am ET
Venue
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Neutral venue
Spread
JAX -7.5
Total
41.5
PHI ML
$4.20
JAX ML
$1.28
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm

Power Comparison

PHIRating -8.0
Off EPA/play
-0.033
Def EPA/play
+0.111
Exp points
12.8
Offence by zone
-.27
+.07
+.27
-.07
-.08
-.43
-.16
+.03
+.19
+.02
-.12
-.10
-.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.04
-.18
-.26
+.21
-.04
-.06
+.20
+.07
+.16
+.11
-.00
-.15
-.04
JAXRating +9.0
Off EPA/play
+0.182
Def EPA/play
+0.017
Exp points
31.2
Offence by zone
+.14
+.26
+.06
+.12
+.17
+.24
-.02
+.00
-.03
+.15
+.12
-.05
+.01
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.16
+.31
-.06
-.02
-.23
-.15
-.02
+.05
-.07
-.02
-.15
+.01
+.06
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

JAX offence vs PHI
short-left passing
+0.34 EPA/play
JAX offence vs PHI
inside runs
+0.26 EPA/play
JAX offence vs PHI
short-right passing
+0.18 EPA/play

Market

Spread (JAX)
Open -6.5 → Now -7.5·Move -1.0Moved toward model
AU best
JAX -7 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best (other side)
PHI +8 @ $1.91 Unibet
Global best
JAX -7 @ $1.85 PlayUp
Total
Open 42.5 → Now 42.0·Move -0.5
AU best over
Over 41.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 42.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best over
Over 41.5 @ $1.95 theScore Bet
AU best PHI ML
$4.20 Unibet
AU best JAX ML
$1.28 Neds
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots

The Call

Play: JAX -7
Model JAX +18.3 · total 44.0
Spread · Model recommendation
JAX -7
$1.85 PlayUp
Edge +11.3PLAY
Total · Analysis
Over 41.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.5PASS

Jacksonville -7 at PlayUp, priced at 1.85, is a PLAY with an 11.3-point edge against the model's 18.3-point margin. This is a model recommendation, not a recorded bet. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is a neutral venue, and the model uses zero home-field adjustment. Jacksonville's short-left passing matchup shows +0.34 EPA per play against Philadelphia's weakest zone. Over 41.5 at PointsBet (AU) has a 2.5-point edge and is a PASS.

Philadelphia's offensive line has changed materially: Lane Johnson retired and Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore. Saquon Barkley also missed Wednesday practice with a hamstring injury. Jacksonville had Eric Murray absent in concussion protocol, with Josh Hines-Allen and Anton Harrison limited. Those practice updates are not final game statuses, and these developments have no new numerical adjustment. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.

Why · JAX short-left passing (+0.34 EPA/play vs PHI, PHI's weakest zone)

Situational

2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
PHI · 486 dropbacks
Jalen Hurts
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.33 (351 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.66 (135 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
JAX defence: pressure 27% · blitz 27%
JAX · 600 dropbacks
Trevor Lawrence
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (442 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (158 snaps)
Pressure rate faced26%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)10%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PHI defence: pressure 33% · blitz —
PHI offence vs JAX coverage
ShellJAX usagePHI EPA/dbLeague
Cover 330% (209 snaps)+0.23 (154 snaps)+0.06
Cover 226% (183 snaps)-0.05 (109 snaps)0.00
Cover 116% (114 snaps)+0.11 (127 snaps)+0.06
Cover 410% (69 snaps)-0.09 (77 snaps)+0.07
Cover 68% (56 snaps)—-0.03
JAX man coverage 24% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
JAX offence vs PHI coverage
ShellPHI usageJAX EPA/dbLeague
Cover 135% (221 snaps)+0.09 (124 snaps)+0.06
Cover 322% (140 snaps)+0.04 (207 snaps)+0.06
Cover 218% (114 snaps)+0.12 (141 snaps)0.00
Cover 47% (43 snaps)+0.09 (67 snaps)+0.07
PHI man coverage 44% · JAX vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.06
PHI tendencies
Play action rate19% · — vs -0.03 EPA (26 snaps)
RPO rate8% (18 snaps)
Screen rate5% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / — / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.01 (71 snaps) · neutral +0.12 (33 snaps)
JAX tendencies
Play action rate26% · — vs +0.30 EPA (30 snaps)
RPO rate1% (2 snaps)
Screen rate11% (12 snaps)
Personnel11 71%, 12 22%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 27% / 24%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.14 (36 snaps) · neutral -0.16 (31 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:02 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2