NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
@
Designated home
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 12:30am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 9:30am ET
Venue
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Neutral venueAU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
PHIRating -8.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
JAXRating +9.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
JAX offence vs PHI
short-left passing
+0.34 EPA/play
JAX offence vs PHI
inside runs
+0.26 EPA/play
JAX offence vs PHI
short-right passing
+0.18 EPA/play
Market
Spread (JAX)
Open -6.5 → Now -7.5·Move -1.0Moved toward model
AU bestJAX -7 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best (other side)PHI +8 @ $1.91 Unibet
Global bestJAX -7 @ $1.85 PlayUp
Total
Open 42.5 → Now 42.0·Move -0.5
AU best overOver 41.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 42.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best overOver 41.5 @ $1.95 theScore Bet
AU best PHI ML
$4.20 Unibet
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Play: JAX -7
Model JAX +18.3 · total 44.0Spread · Model recommendation
JAX -7
$1.85 PlayUp
Edge +11.3PLAY
Total · Analysis
Over 41.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.5PASS
Jacksonville -7 at PlayUp, priced at 1.85, is a PLAY with an 11.3-point edge against the model's 18.3-point margin. This is a model recommendation, not a recorded bet. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is a neutral venue, and the model uses zero home-field adjustment. Jacksonville's short-left passing matchup shows +0.34 EPA per play against Philadelphia's weakest zone. Over 41.5 at PointsBet (AU) has a 2.5-point edge and is a PASS.
Philadelphia's offensive line has changed materially: Lane Johnson retired and Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore. Saquon Barkley also missed Wednesday practice with a hamstring injury. Jacksonville had Eric Murray absent in concussion protocol, with Josh Hines-Allen and Anton Harrison limited. Those practice updates are not final game statuses, and these developments have no new numerical adjustment. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · JAX short-left passing (+0.34 EPA/play vs PHI, PHI's weakest zone)
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
PHI · 486 dropbacks
Jalen Hurts
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.33 (351 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.66 (135 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
JAX defence: pressure 27% · blitz 27%
JAX · 600 dropbacks
Trevor Lawrence
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (442 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (158 snaps)
Pressure rate faced26%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)10%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PHI defence: pressure 33% · blitz —
PHI offence vs JAX coverage
| Shell | JAX usage | PHI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 30% (209 snaps) | +0.23 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (183 snaps) | -0.05 (109 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 16% (114 snaps) | +0.11 (127 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 10% (69 snaps) | -0.09 (77 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (56 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
JAX man coverage 24% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
JAX offence vs PHI coverage
| Shell | PHI usage | JAX EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (221 snaps) | +0.09 (124 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (140 snaps) | +0.04 (207 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 18% (114 snaps) | +0.12 (141 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (43 snaps) | +0.09 (67 snaps) | +0.07 |
PHI man coverage 44% · JAX vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.06
PHI tendencies
Play action rate19% · — vs -0.03 EPA (26 snaps)
RPO rate8% (18 snaps)
Screen rate5% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / — / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.01 (71 snaps) · neutral +0.12 (33 snaps)
JAX tendencies
Play action rate26% · — vs +0.30 EPA (30 snaps)
RPO rate1% (2 snaps)
Screen rate11% (12 snaps)
Personnel11 71%, 12 22%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 27% / 24%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.14 (36 snaps) · neutral -0.16 (31 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:02 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2