NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
@
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
PHIRating +0.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
TENRating -4.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
PHI offence vs TEN
deep-right passing
+0.35 EPA/play
PHI offence vs TEN
short-middle passing
+0.26 EPA/play
PHI offence vs TEN
runs off left tackle
+0.17 EPA/play
Market
Spread (TEN)
Open +7 → Now +7·Move 0.0
AU bestTEN +7.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)PHI -7 @ $1.91 Unibet
Global bestTEN +7.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Total
Open 39.5 → Now 39.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 39.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
AU best underUnder 40.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
Global best overOver 22.5 @ $1.04 Courtside
AU best PHI ML
$1.30 Dabble AU
AU best TEN ML
$3.82 SportsBet
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: TEN +7.5
Model TEN -2.5 · total 42.0Spread · Analysis
TEN +7.5
$1.92 Dabble AU
Edge +5.0EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 39.5
$1.90 SportsBet
Edge +2.5PASS
The model has Philadelphia winning by 2.5 on paper but the best local line has Tennessee getting 7.5 points, so the gap on the primary market sits at 5.0 points, short of the Lean floor at this stage of the season. That's an edge worth noting rather than acting on, and the model is 1-0 against the spread so far in 2026. Underneath it, the model sees Philadelphia's deep-right passing attack rated at +0.35 EPA per play against Tennessee's defence, the biggest matchup edge on the board. The total sits at 39.5 with SportsBet, and the model's 42.0 projection produces only a 2.5-point edge on the over, which is a pass.
This early in the season the rating leans heavily on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of both rosters and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample still just 1,830 plays. On last season's charting, Jalen Hurts averaged 0.328 EPA per dropback when clean but -0.663 under pressure. Nothing here clears the model's early-season thresholds, so both markets stay in the analysis-only bucket for now.
Why · PHI deep-right passing (+0.35 EPA/play vs TEN, TEN's weakest zone)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
PHI · 486 dropbacks
Jalen Hurts
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.33 (351 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.66 (135 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
TEN defence: pressure 30% · blitz 23%
TEN · 592 dropbacks
Cam Ward
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.08 (407 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.80 (185 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)7%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PHI defence: pressure 33% · blitz 19%
PHI offence vs TEN coverage
| Shell | TEN usage | PHI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 29% (173 snaps) | -0.05 (109 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (157 snaps) | +0.23 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 19% (116 snaps) | +0.11 (127 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (56 snaps) | -0.09 (77 snaps) | +0.07 |
TEN man coverage 27% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
TEN offence vs PHI coverage
| Shell | PHI usage | TEN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (221 snaps) | -0.30 (144 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (140 snaps) | -0.20 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 18% (114 snaps) | -0.02 (175 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (43 snaps) | -0.78 (45 snaps) | +0.07 |
PHI man coverage 44% · TEN vs man -0.21, vs zone -0.19
PHI tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.08 vs +0.07 EPA (128 snaps)
RPO rate6% (63 snaps)
Screen rate4% (25 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 19% / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.10 (296 snaps) · neutral -0.10 (126 snaps)
TEN tendencies
Play action rate19% · -0.04 vs -0.23 EPA (121 snaps)
RPO rate11% (110 snaps)
Screen rate11% (70 snaps)
Personnel11 73%, 12 24%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 23% / 27%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.01 (201 snaps) · neutral -0.04 (149 snaps) · heavy +0.02 (44 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:48 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.
savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2