The model has Philadelphia winning by 2.5 on paper but the best local line has Tennessee getting 7.5 points, so the gap on the primary market sits at 5.0 points, short of the Lean floor at this stage of the season. That's an edge worth noting rather than acting on, and the model is 1-0 against the spread so far in 2026. Underneath it, the model sees Philadelphia's deep-right passing attack rated at +0.35 EPA per play against Tennessee's defence, the biggest matchup edge on the board. The total sits at 39.5 with SportsBet, and the model's 42.0 projection produces only a 2.5-point edge on the over, which is a pass.

This early in the season the rating leans heavily on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of both rosters and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample still just 1,830 plays. On last season's charting, Jalen Hurts averaged 0.328 EPA per dropback when clean but -0.663 under pressure. Nothing here clears the model's early-season thresholds, so both markets stay in the analysis-only bucket for now.