NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Kick-off
Fri 2 Oct, 10:15am AEST
Thu 1 Oct, 8:15pm ET
Venue
Huntington Bank Field
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
PITRating -1.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
CLERating -0.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
PIT offence vs CLE
short-middle passing
+0.41 EPA/play
CLE offence vs PIT
deep-right passing
+0.55 EPA/play
PIT offence vs CLE
inside runs
+0.13 EPA/play
Market
Spread (CLE)
Open +2.5 → Now +3·Move +0.5
AU bestCLE +3.5 @ $1.80 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)PIT -2.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global bestCLE +3.5 @ $1.80 Dabble AU
Total
Open 38.5 → Now 38.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 37.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 38.5 @ $1.90 TAB
Global best overOver 37.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best PIT ML
$1.69 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Lean: CLE +3.5
Model CLE +3.6 · total 38.4Spread · Analysis
CLE +3.5
$1.80 Dabble AU
Edge +7.1LEAN
Total · Analysis
Over 37.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +0.9PASS
The model leans Browns +3.5, best available at Dabble AU (1.8), against a market line of +3.0, with the edge sitting at 7.1 points. That's inside this season's Lean band of 7-10 points for weeks 1 to 5, short of the 10-point bar the model needs, so this is analysis rather than a tip - the model notes the gap and nothing more. Early season, Cleveland's rating blends last year's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of the team, scaled by roster continuity, and carries a hand adjustment of 0.2 points for Deshaun Watson given the uncertainty around him versus a rookie option. The 2026 sample is still just 5,586 plays leaguewide and remains mostly outweighed by last season and the market. The model's spread record this season sits at 1-0.
On the matchup, Cleveland's deep-right passing rates at +0.55 EPA/play against Pittsburgh's defence, the Steelers' weakest zone. On 2025 charting, Aaron Rodgers averaged -0.71 EPA per dropback under pressure against 0.227 when clean.
Why · CLE deep-right passing (+0.55 EPA/play vs PIT, PIT's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · CLE Deshaun Watson +0.2 pts
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
PIT · 526 dropbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.23 (415 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.71 (111 snaps)
Pressure rate faced21%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CLE defence: pressure 35% · blitz —
CLE · 0 dropbacks
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 dropbacks charted for Deshaun Watson
PIT defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
PIT offence vs CLE coverage
| Shell | CLE usage | PIT EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (195 snaps) | +0.04 (128 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 27% (153 snaps) | -0.00 (149 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 20% (114 snaps) | +0.09 (152 snaps) | 0.00 |
CLE man coverage 41% · PIT vs man +0.03, vs zone +0.04
CLE offence vs PIT coverage
| Shell | PIT usage | CLE EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 29% (200 snaps) | -0.35 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (165 snaps) | -0.27 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (144 snaps) | -0.26 (146 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (64 snaps) | -0.08 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (48 snaps) | +0.04 (45 snaps) | +0.07 |
PIT man coverage 35% · CLE vs man -0.15, vs zone -0.31
PIT tendencies
Play action rate23% · — vs -0.42 EPA (29 snaps)
RPO rate8% (15 snaps)
Screen rate10% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 49%, 12 33%, 13 14%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 35%
Box vs run, EPA allowedneutral -0.15 (38 snaps)
CLE tendencies
Play action rate23% · — vs +0.10 EPA (24 snaps)
RPO rate7% (11 snaps)
Screen rate12% (12 snaps)
Personnel12 46%, 11 46%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / — / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.19 (48 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:41 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2