NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Home
NE
New England Patriots
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
PITRating -1.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
NERating +3.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NE offence vs PIT
deep-left passing
+0.25 EPA/play
NE offence vs PIT
deep-right passing
+0.22 EPA/play
NE offence vs PIT
runs off right end
+0.14 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NE)
Open -5.5 → Now -5·Move +0.5
AU bestNE -4.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)PIT +5.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
Global bestNE -4.5 @ $1.91 ReBet
Total
Open 41.5 → Now 41.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 41.5 @ $1.91 TABtouch
AU best underUnder 42.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best overOver 35.5 @ $1.37 Courtside
AU best PIT ML
$3.05 SportsBet
AU best NE ML
$1.43 Bet Right
11 AU books · 32 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: NE -4.5
Model NE +8.1 · total 40.0Spread · Analysis
NE -4.5
$1.85 Dabble AU
Edge +3.6EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Under 42
$1.88 PlayUp
Edge +1.5PASS
The model has Patriots at 8.1 points, well clear of the market's -5.0 with the best line at -4.5 through Dabble AU at 1.85, giving an edge of 3.6 that falls under the 7-point Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5, so this is noted and nothing more. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified. On last season's charting, Aaron Rodgers averaged -0.71 EPA per dropback under pressure compared to Drake Maye's -0.243, and New England's deep-left passing shows a +0.25 EPA/play advantage against a Pittsburgh defence that ranks as their weakest zone there.
The rating still leans heavily on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football in the sample so far, still mostly outweighed by last season and the market. That still leaves the gap short of the model's higher early-season bar, so it stays noted rather than acted on.
Why · NE deep-left passing (+0.25 EPA/play vs PIT, PIT's weakest zone)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
PIT · 526 dropbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.23 (415 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.71 (111 snaps)
Pressure rate faced21%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NE defence: pressure 27% · blitz 28%
NE · 540 dropbacks
Drake Maye
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.55 (368 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.24 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced32%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PIT defence: pressure 30% · blitz 31%
PIT offence vs NE coverage
| Shell | NE usage | PIT EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 30% (176 snaps) | -0.00 (149 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (155 snaps) | +0.09 (152 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 26% (152 snaps) | +0.04 (128 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (55 snaps) | -0.02 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
NE man coverage 31% · PIT vs man +0.03, vs zone +0.04
NE offence vs PIT coverage
| Shell | PIT usage | NE EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 29% (200 snaps) | +0.37 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (165 snaps) | +0.49 (147 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (144 snaps) | +0.21 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (64 snaps) | +0.31 (52 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (48 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
PIT man coverage 35% · NE vs man +0.37, vs zone +0.28
PIT tendencies
Play action rate19% · -0.20 vs +0.09 EPA (115 snaps)
RPO rate9% (89 snaps)
Screen rate14% (81 snaps)
Personnel11 49%, 12 33%, 13 14%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 31% / 35%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.01 (193 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (154 snaps) · heavy -0.04 (68 snaps)
NE tendencies
Play action rate24% · +0.34 vs +0.29 EPA (148 snaps)
RPO rate2% (15 snaps)
Screen rate4% (26 snaps)
Personnel11 52%, 12 22%, 21 19%, 22 6%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / 28% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (158 snaps) · neutral -0.01 (176 snaps) · heavy -0.14 (39 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:47 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2